Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Bucharest, clay - Final

Date: 5 April 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports 1
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Premier Sport 2
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	TV4 Tennis
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Tennis


	Mariano Navone		Daniel Merida Aguilar

	1	2
	1.36	3.2	Watch
	1.36	3.05	Watch
	1.38	3.33
	1.33	3.32	Watch
	1.4	2.9	Watch
	1.38	3.06	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.37 ↓ (1.39)	3.14 ↑ (2.96)

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mariano Navone
69.7%

Daniel Merida Aguilar
30.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68%

32%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.1%

29.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mariano Navone has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Daniel Merida Aguilar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mariano Navone than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniel Merida Aguilar than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.7%	0%	27.3%

Mariano Navone - Daniel Merida Aguilar Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Navone will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Merida Aguilar will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Navone: 46.4% – 99%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Navone (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 Sets - Navone (1.97) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Navone (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Navone is ranked ATP: 60. Merida Aguilar is ranked ATP: 136.

Right now, both players are showing solid form.

Merida Aguilar may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Navone is seen as the favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Navone won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mariano Navone
ATP Bucharest
04.04.26	Mariano Navone - Botic Van De Zandschulp	2:0 ✺
03.04.26	Alex Molcan - Mariano Navone	1:2 ✺
01.04.26	Elmer Moller - Mariano Navone	0:2 ✺
31.03.26	Christopher OConnell - Mariano Navone	0:2 ✺
ATP Miami
20.03.26	Mariano Navone - Valentin Vacherot	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WWWWL
- Daniel Merida Aguilar
ATP Bucharest
04.04.26	Fabian Marozsan - Daniel Merida Aguilar	1:2 ✺
03.04.26	Titouan Droguet - Daniel Merida Aguilar	2:1 ✺
03.04.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Adrian Mannarino	2:1 ✺
31.03.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Joel Schwaerzler	2:0 ✺
30.03.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Saba Purtseladze	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
27.07.22	Mariano Navone - Daniel Merida Aguilar	2:1

Mariano Navone - Daniel Merida Aguilar: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide