Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Cagliari (Italy), clay - Final

Date: 5 May 2024, Sunday

Referee: Sturmer T. (Bra)


	Mariano Navone		Lorenzo Musetti

	1	2
	2.25	1.57	Watch
	2.35	1.53
	2.4	1.52	Watch
	2.52	1.56
	2.25	1.57	Watch
	2.4	1.54	Watch
	2.31	1.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.35 ↓ (2.43)	1.55 ↑ (1.52)

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mariano Navone
39.7%

Lorenzo Musetti
60.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.5%

61.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.1%

61.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mariano Navone has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Lorenzo Musetti has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mariano Navone than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorenzo Musetti than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30%	0%	70%

Mariano Navone - Lorenzo Musetti Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Navone will win (votes: 3 - 30%). Musetti will win (votes: 7 - 70%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Musetti: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Navone is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Musetti is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Navone could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Musetti will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mariano Navone
ATP Challenger
04.05.24	Luciano Darderi - Mariano Navone	0:2 ✺
03.05.24	Mariano Navone - Emilio Nava	2:1 ✺
02.05.24	Mariano Navone - Shintaro Mochizuki	2:1 ✺
ATP Madrid
26.04.24	Mariano Navone - Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune	1:2 ✺
24.04.24	Mariano Navone - Alexei Popyrin	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WWWLW
- Lorenzo Musetti
ATP Challenger
04.05.24	Daniel Elahi Galan - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2 ✺
03.05.24	Nuno Borges - Lorenzo Musetti	1:2 ✺
02.05.24	Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
26.04.24	Lorenzo Musetti - Thiago Seyboth Wild	0:2 ✺
ATP Barcelona
17.04.24	Lorenzo Musetti - Roberto Carballes Baena	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWWLL

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