Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Cap Cana, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 12 March 2026, Thursday


	Mariano Navone		Shintaro Mochizuki

	1	2
	1.53	2.38	Watch
	1.53	2.35
	1.63	2.39
	1.55	2.32	Watch
	1.57	2.25
	1.55	2.29	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↓ (1.66)	2.33 ↑ (2.1)

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mariano Navone
59.9%

Shintaro Mochizuki
40.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.9%

44.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.7%

44.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mariano Navone has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Shintaro Mochizuki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mariano Navone than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shintaro Mochizuki than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	0%	42.9%

Mariano Navone - Shintaro Mochizuki Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Navone will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Mochizuki will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Navone (votes: 1 - 50%). Mochizuki (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Navone is ranked ATP: 79. Mochizuki is ranked ATP: 130.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Navone may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Navone won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Mariano Navone - the odds 1.66 are the expected chance of winning is 55.85%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mariano Navone
ATP Challenger
11.03.26	Mariano Navone - Nick Hardt	2:1 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
04.03.26	Mariano Navone - Marcos Giron	1:2 ✺
ATP Santiago
25.02.26	Mariano Navone - Luciano Darderi	1:2 ✺
24.02.26	Mariano Navone - Vit Kopriva	Kopriva V. retired ✺
ATP Rio de Janeiro
17.02.26	Francisco Cerundolo - Mariano Navone	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.1 WLL?L
- Shintaro Mochizuki
ATP Challenger
11.03.26	Nicolas Mejia - Shintaro Mochizuki	0:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
03.03.26	Benjamin Bonzi - Shintaro Mochizuki	2:1 ✺
02.03.26	Federico Agustin Gomez - Shintaro Mochizuki	1:2 ✺
ATP Dubai
21.02.26	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard - Shintaro Mochizuki	2:0 ✺
ATP Doha
17.02.26	Shintaro Mochizuki - Karen Khachanov	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
02.05.24	Mariano Navone - Shintaro Mochizuki	2:1

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