Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Girona, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 28 March 2025, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Girona 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay


	Marin Cilic		Pablo Carreno-Busta

	1	2
	2.1	1.67	Watch
	2.2	1.6	Watch
	2.05	1.65	Watch
	1.98	1.81	Watch
	2.38	1.53	Watch
	1.99	1.75	Watch
	2.05	1.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.11 ↓ (2.37)	1.67 ↑ (1.53)

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marin Cilic
44.1%

Pablo Carreno-Busta
55.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

39.3%

60.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.1%

62.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marin Cilic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Pablo Carreno-Busta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marin Cilic than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Marin Cilic that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pablo Carreno-Busta than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Pablo Carreno-Busta could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Marin Cilic - Pablo Carreno Busta Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Cilic will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Carreno Busta will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cilic: 50.6% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Cilic is ranked ATP: 143. Carreno Busta is ranked ATP: 109.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Cilic won 4.

Two players are playing changeable.

Carreno Busta will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Cilic won 5 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 12:4 (average 2:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marin Cilic
ATP Challenger
27.03.25	Marton Fucsovics - Marin Cilic	1:2 ✺
26.03.25	Marin Cilic - Carlos Taberner	2:0 ✺
19.03.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Marin Cilic	2:0 ✺
ATP Dubai
27.02.25	Felix Aliassime-Auger - Marin Cilic	2:1 ✺
26.02.25	Alexei Popyrin - Marin Cilic	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 WWLLW
- Pablo Carreno-Busta
ATP Challenger
27.03.25	Iliyan Radulov - Pablo Carreno-Busta	1:2 ✺
26.03.25	Pedro Cachin - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2 ✺
19.03.25	Ivan Gakhov - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:0 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
07.03.25	Quentin Halys - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:0 ✺
04.03.25	Alexis Galarneau - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Davis Cup World Group
23.11.22	Marin Cilic - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:1
ATP Olympic Games
26.07.21	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Marin Cilic	2:1
ATP Cincinnati
17.08.18	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Marin Cilic	0:2
ATP Roma
18.05.18	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Marin Cilic	0:2
ATP Australian Open
20.01.18	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Marin Cilic	1:3
ATP Basel
27.10.16	Marin Cilic - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:0

Marin Cilic - Pablo Carreno-Busta