Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Cincinnati, hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 14 August 2026, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Germany	Laola1


	Daniel Merida Aguilar		Marin Cilic

	1	2
	1.8	2	Watch
	1.65	2.20
	1.79	2.03	Watch
	1.86	2.05
	1.77	2.05	Watch
	1.8	2.06	Watch
	1.85	2.06	Watch
	1.81	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↓ (2)	2.06 ↑ (1.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 23.00

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Daniel Merida Aguilar
53.5%

Marin Cilic
46.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.4%

52.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49%

51%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daniel Merida Aguilar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Daniel Merida Aguilar's performance.

Marin Cilic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Marin Cilic might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniel Merida Aguilar than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marin Cilic than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	0%	60%

Daniel Merida Aguilar - Marin Cilic Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Merida Aguilar will win (votes: 6 - 40%). Cilic will win (votes: 9 - 60%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cilic: 35.2% – 84.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Cilic (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Merida Aguilar is ranked ATP: 63. Cilic is ranked ATP: 85.

Merida Aguilar is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Cilic has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Merida Aguilar may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Merida Aguilar won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Daniel Merida Aguilar - the odds 2 are the expected chance of winning is 47.37%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daniel Merida Aguilar
ATP Montreal
11.08.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Learner Tien	0:2 ✺
09.08.26	Tallon Griekspoor - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
07.08.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Alex Michelsen	2:1 ✺
05.08.26	Ugo Humbert - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
04.08.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Liam Draxl	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 LWWWW
- Marin Cilic
ATP Montreal
04.08.26	Francis Tiafoe - Marin Cilic	2:1 ✺
03.08.26	Sho Shimabukuro - Marin Cilic	0:2 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
29.06.26	Marin Cilic - Daniil Medvedev	0:3 ✺
ATP London
16.06.26	Ugo Humbert - Marin Cilic	2:0 ✺
ATP Hertogenbosch
13.06.26	Daniil Medvedev - Marin Cilic	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
19.03.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Marin Cilic	2:0

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