Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Roanne, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 11 October 2025, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Sports MAX 4
Slovakia	Arena sport 2


	Matej Dodig		Hugo Gaston

	1	2
	3.4	1.3	Watch
			Watch
	3.2	1.3	Watch
	3.18	1.38
	3.08	1.35	Watch
	3.12	1.34	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.2 ↑ (2.3)	1.33 ↓ (1.54)

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matej Dodig
29.4%

Hugo Gaston
70.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.1%

59.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.4%

63.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matej Dodig has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Matej Dodig's form might have worsened.

Hugo Gaston has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Hugo Gaston's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matej Dodig than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Matej Dodig, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hugo Gaston than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Hugo Gaston, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Matej Dodig - Hugo Gaston Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Dodig will win (votes: 5 - 50%). Gaston will win (votes: 5 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Dodig: 19% – 81%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Dodig (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Gaston (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 Sets - Dodig (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Dodig (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Gaston (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Dodig is ranked ATP: 278. Gaston is ranked ATP: 101.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Dodig may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Gaston is seen as the favorite.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matej Dodig
ATP Challenger
10.10.25	Dominic Stephan Stricker - Matej Dodig	Stricker D. retired ✺
08.10.25	Matej Dodig - Francesco Passaro	2:0 ✺
06.10.25	Matej Dodig - Christopher Eubanks	2:0 ✺
23.09.25	Stefano Travaglia - Matej Dodig	2:0 ✺
17.09.25	Matej Dodig - Zdenek Kolar	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 ?WWLL
- Hugo Gaston
ATP Challenger
10.10.25	Nicolai Budkov Kjaer - Hugo Gaston	1:2 ✺
09.10.25	Borna Gojo - Hugo Gaston	1:2 ✺
07.10.25	Viktor Durasovic - Hugo Gaston	0:2 ✺
30.09.25	Clement Chidekh - Hugo Gaston	2:1 ✺
23.09.25	Nicolai Budkov Kjaer - Hugo Gaston	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WWWLL

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