Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Lugano, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday


	Matej Dodig		Joel Schwaerzler

	1	2
	1.62	2.2	Watch
	1.62	2.16	Watch
	1.65	2.35
	1.57	2.34
	1.62	2.2	Watch
	1.62	2.16	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (2.04)	2.24 ↑ (1.7)

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matej Dodig
58%

Joel Schwaerzler
42%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.5%

54.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.8%

52.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matej Dodig has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Matej Dodig's performance.

Joel Schwaerzler has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Joel Schwaerzler might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matej Dodig than the current prediction. (-10.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Matej Dodig that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Joel Schwaerzler than the current prediction. (+10.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Joel Schwaerzler could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Matej Dodig - Joel Schwaerzler Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Dodig will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%). Schwaerzler will win (votes: 6 - 54.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Schwaerzler: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Dodig (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Schwaerzler (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Dodig is ranked ATP: 230. Schwaerzler is ranked ATP: 242.

At the moment, both players are looking strong and ready to play.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

We predict that Schwaerzler will win today's game, with odds of 1.67.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Matej Dodig - the odds 2.04 are the expected chance of winning is 45.52%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matej Dodig
ATP Challenger
27.02.26	Nicolai Budkov Kjaer - Matej Dodig	0:2 ✺
25.02.26	Matej Dodig - Timofey Skatov	2:1 ✺
24.02.26	Matej Dodig - Jonas Forejtek	2:0 ✺
17.02.26	Moise Kouame - Matej Dodig	2:0 ✺
16.02.26	Matej Dodig - Michael Vrbensky	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 WWWLW
- Joel Schwaerzler
ATP Challenger
27.02.26	Joel Schwaerzler - Dominic Stephan Stricker	2:0 ✺
26.02.26	Petr Brunclik - Joel Schwaerzler	1:2 ✺
24.02.26	Joel Schwaerzler - Mirza Basic	2:0 ✺
19.02.26	Joel Schwaerzler - Moise Kouame	0:2 ✺
17.02.26	David Goffin - Joel Schwaerzler	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.8 WWWLW

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