Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Lugano, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 25 February 2026, Wednesday


	Matej Dodig		Timofey Skatov

	1	2
	2.1	1.67	Watch
			Watch
	2.05	1.69	Watch
	2.15	1.76
	1.32	3.15	Watch
	1.91	1.8
	2.03	1.68	Watch
	1.83	1.91
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↑ (1.83)	1.95 ↑ (1.91)

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matej Dodig
50.5%

Timofey Skatov
49.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.1%

48.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.3%

47.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matej Dodig has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Timofey Skatov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matej Dodig than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Timofey Skatov than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Matej Dodig - Timofey Skatov Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Dodig will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). Skatov will win (votes: 8 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Skatov: 40% – 93.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Dodig (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Skatov (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 Sets - Skatov (2.77) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Dodig (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Skatov (votes: 5 - 71.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Dodig is ranked ATP: 230. Skatov is ranked ATP: 192.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Dodig may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Matej Dodig - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 51.07%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matej Dodig
ATP Challenger
24.02.26	Matej Dodig - Jonas Forejtek	2:0 ✺
17.02.26	Moise Kouame - Matej Dodig	2:0 ✺
16.02.26	Matej Dodig - Michael Vrbensky	2:0 ✺
15.02.26	Matej Dodig - Javier Barranco Cosano	2:0 ✺
10.02.26	Matej Dodig - Giles Hussey	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WLWWL
- Timofey Skatov
ATP Challenger
23.02.26	Tom Gentzsch - Timofey Skatov	0:2 ✺
18.02.26	Timofey Skatov - Titouan Droguet	0:2 ✺
17.02.26	Timofey Skatov - Calvin Hemery	2:0 ✺
10.02.26	Arthur Bouquier - Timofey Skatov	2:1 ✺
21.01.26	Lilian Marmousez - Timofey Skatov	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WLWLL

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