Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Santos, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 8 May 2026, Friday


	Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida		Miguel Tobon

	1	2
			Watch
	1.43	2.65	Watch
	1.48	2.89
	1.43	2.67	Watch
	1.44	2.63
	1.41	2.69	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↓ (1.59)	2.71 ↑ (2.19)

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida
65.3%

Miguel Tobon
34.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.9%

42.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.9%

44.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida's performance.

Miguel Tobon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Miguel Tobon might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida than the current prediction. (-9.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Miguel Tobon than the current prediction. (+9.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Miguel Tobon could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida - Miguel Tobon Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Pucinelli De Almeida is ranked ATP: 410. Tobon is ranked ATP: 501.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Pucinelli De Almeida may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida - the odds 1.59 are the expected chance of winning is 57.94%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida
ATP Challenger
07.05.26	Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida - Valerio Aboian	2:0 ✺
06.05.26	Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida - Rafael Tosetto	2:0 ✺
04.05.26	Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida - Joao Victor Couto Loureiro	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
02.05.26	Lucio Ratti - Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida	2:0 ✺
01.05.26	Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida - Wilson Leite	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WWLLW
- Miguel Tobon
ATP Challenger
07.05.26	Miguel Tobon - Facundo Mena	2:1 ✺
05.05.26	Miguel Tobon - Eduardo Ribeiro	2:0 ✺
07.04.26	Tibo Colson - Miguel Tobon	2:1 ✺
06.04.26	Andrew Fenty - Miguel Tobon	0:2 ✺
05.04.26	Rafael De Alba - Miguel Tobon	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 WWLWL

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