Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Santa Cruz, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 16 April 2026, Thursday


	Matias Soto		Gonzalo Bueno

	1	2
			Watch
	1.95	1.7	Watch
	2.26	1.7
	2.1	1.65	Watch
	2	1.73
	2.04	1.78	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↓ (2.44)	1.71 ↑ (1.48)

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matias Soto
45.3%

Gonzalo Bueno
54.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.8%

62.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.7%

67.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matias Soto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Matias Soto's performance.

Gonzalo Bueno has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Gonzalo Bueno might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matias Soto than the current prediction. (-12.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Matias Soto that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gonzalo Bueno than the current prediction. (+12.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Gonzalo Bueno could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Matias Soto - Gonzalo Bueno Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 Sets - Bueno (1.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Gonzalo Bueno will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Bueno (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Soto is ranked ATP: 304. Bueno is ranked ATP: 187.

Currently, both players are in excellent shape.

Bueno may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

We predict that Bueno will win today's game, with odds of 1.75.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Soto won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Matias Soto - the odds 2.44 are the expected chance of winning is 37.76%, but this team recently wins 21% of matches with these odds.

Gonzalo Bueno - the odds 1.48 are the expected chance of winning is 62.24%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matias Soto
ATP Challenger
15.04.26	Guido Ivan Justo - Matias Soto	0:2 ✺
14.04.26	Mariano Kestelboim - Matias Soto	0:2 ✺
08.04.26	Matias Soto - Stefano Napolitano	0:2 ✺
06.04.26	Jay Clarke - Matias Soto	1:2 ✺
03.04.26	Matias Soto - Nicolas Mejia	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 WWLWW
- Gonzalo Bueno
ATP Challenger
15.04.26	Federico Coria - Gonzalo Bueno	0:2 ✺
14.04.26	Gonzalo Villanueva - Gonzalo Bueno	1:2 ✺
12.04.26	Gonzalo Bueno - Gustavo Heide	0:2 ✺
11.04.26	Gonzalo Bueno - Lautaro Midon	2:1 ✺
10.04.26	Gonzalo Bueno - Hernan Casanova	Casanova H. Retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WWLW?

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
16.11.24	Gonzalo Bueno - Matias Soto	0:2

Matias Soto - Gonzalo Bueno: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide