Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: US Open, hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 31 August 2026, Monday

Location: USTA Billie Jean King NTC (New York, NY)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	HBO Max


	Matteo Arnaldi		James Duckworth

	1	2
	1.57	2.38	Watch
	1.57	2.35
	1.57	2.40
	1.59	2.56
	1.61	2.26	Watch
	1.57	2.45
	1.59	2.40	Watch
	1.60	2.30
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↓ (2.1)	2.39 ↑ (1.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 39.00

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matteo Arnaldi
60.1%

James Duckworth
39.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.2%

54.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46%

54%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Arnaldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Matteo Arnaldi's performance.

James Duckworth has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and James Duckworth might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (-14.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Matteo Arnaldi that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for James Duckworth than the current prediction. (+14.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that James Duckworth could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Matteo Arnaldi - James Duckworth Predictions

Users Predictions: Matteo Arnaldi will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Preview

Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 34. Duckworth is ranked ATP: 79.

Arnaldi has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Duckworth is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Duckworth may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Arnaldi is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

James Duckworth - the odds 1.73 are the expected chance of winning is 54.83%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Cincinnati
15.08.26	Martin Landaluce - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1 ✺
ATP Montreal
07.08.26	Tallon Griekspoor - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1 ✺
05.08.26	Fabian Marozsan - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2 ✺
ATP Washington
27.07.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Lorenzo Musetti	Arnaldi M. Retired ✺
ATP Umag
16.07.26	Damir Dzumhur - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LLW?L
- James Duckworth
ATP Winston-Salem
28.08.26	James Duckworth - Arthur Fery	Duckworth J. Retired ✺
27.08.26	Fabian Marozsan - James Duckworth	1:2 ✺
26.08.26	Lorenzo Sonego - James Duckworth	0:2 ✺
25.08.26	James Duckworth - Mariano Navone	2:0 ✺
24.08.26	Quinn Vandecasteele - James Duckworth	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 ?WWWW

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