Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Lyon, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 19 October 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: Lyon 🌤️ ...


	Matteo Arnaldi		Lorenzo Musetti

	1	2
	2.75	1.44	Watch
	2.70	1.45
	2.7	1.45	Watch
	2.71	1.44	Watch
	2.65	1.44
	2.68	1.47	Watch
	2.65	1.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.69 ↓ (3.36)	1.45 ↑ (1.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matteo Arnaldi
35%

Lorenzo Musetti
65%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

28.4%

71.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.4%

76.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Arnaldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Matteo Arnaldi's performance.

Lorenzo Musetti has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lorenzo Musetti might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (-11.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Matteo Arnaldi that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorenzo Musetti than the current prediction. (+11.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lorenzo Musetti could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.3%	0%	91.7%

Matteo Arnaldi - Lorenzo Musetti Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Musetti (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Lorenzo Musetti will win (11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 38., and Musetti is ranked ATP: 25..

Both players have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

Arnaldi may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Musetti carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Arnaldi has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 2:9 (averaging 0.4:1.8 goals per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Lorenzo Musetti - the odds 1.33 are the expected chance of winning is 71.64%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Shanghai
10.10.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Taylor Harry Fritz	0:2 ✺
08.10.26	Bernard Tomic - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2 ✺
ATP Tokyo
02.10.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0 ✺
30.09.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Rei Sakamoto	2:1 ✺
ATP US Open
31.08.26	Matteo Arnaldi - James Duckworth	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LWLWL
- Lorenzo Musetti
ATP Shanghai
09.10.26	Yi Zhou - Lorenzo Musetti	2:1 ✺
ATP Tokyo
30.09.26	Lorenzo Musetti - Arthur Fery	Canceled ✺
ATP US Open
03.09.26	Dane Sweeny - Lorenzo Musetti	3:1 ✺
01.09.26	Arthur Fery - Lorenzo Musetti	0:3 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
21.08.26	Lorenzo Musetti - Francis Tiafoe	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 L?LWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Washington
27.07.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Lorenzo Musetti	Arnaldi M. Retired
ATP Australian Open
14.01.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Lorenzo Musetti	1:3
ATP Bastad
19.07.23	Lorenzo Musetti - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1
ATP Roma
14.05.23	Lorenzo Musetti - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0
ATP Challenger
09.04.19	Matteo Arnaldi - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2

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