Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Montreal, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 7 August 2026, Friday


	Tallon Griekspoor		Matteo Arnaldi

	1	2
	1.44	2.75	Watch
	1.48	2.60
	1.42	2.8	Watch
	1.49	2.88
	1.47	2.7	Watch
	1.43	2.9	Watch
	1.46	2.78	Watch
	1.4	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↓ (1.54)	2.78 ↑ (2.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 23.00

The best margin for this event is 1.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tallon Griekspoor
65.7%

Matteo Arnaldi
34.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.3%

38.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.8%

40.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tallon Griekspoor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

Matteo Arnaldi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tallon Griekspoor than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tallon Griekspoor that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Matteo Arnaldi could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70.6%	0%	29.4%

Tallon Griekspoor - Matteo Arnaldi Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Griekspoor will win (votes: 12 - 70.6%). Arnaldi will win (votes: 5 - 29.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Griekspoor: 48.9% – 92.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Arnaldi (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Griekspoor is ranked ATP: 69. Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 35.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Griekspoor may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Griekspoor will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Griekspoor won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3.

Last Results with these Odds

Tallon Griekspoor - the odds 1.54 are the expected chance of winning is 61.31%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tallon Griekspoor
ATP Montreal
05.08.26	Alexander Zverev - Tallon Griekspoor	1:2 ✺
04.08.26	Lorenzo Sonego - Tallon Griekspoor	0:2 ✺
ATP Washington
27.07.26	Alejandro Tabilo - Tallon Griekspoor	2:1 ✺
Exhibition UTS Championship Men
18.07.26	Tallon Griekspoor - Cameron Norrie	2:3 ✺
17.07.26	Joao Fonseca - Tallon Griekspoor	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 WWLLL
- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Montreal
05.08.26	Fabian Marozsan - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2 ✺
ATP Washington
27.07.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Lorenzo Musetti	Arnaldi M. Retired ✺
ATP Umag
16.07.26	Damir Dzumhur - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1 ✺
15.07.26	Federico Agustin Gomez - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
30.06.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Quentin Halys	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 W?LWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Roland Garros
26.05.26	Tallon Griekspoor - Matteo Arnaldi	1:3

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