Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Montreal, hard - 1/32-finals

Date: 5 August 2026, Wednesday


	Fabian Marozsan		Matteo Arnaldi

	1	2
	1.67	2.20	Watch
	1.65	2.20
	1.67	2.20	Watch
	1.69	2.34
	1.63	2.28	Watch
	1.65	2.25
	1.69	2.23	Watch
	1.70	2.21
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↑ (1.62)	2.24 ↓ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fabian Marozsan
57.3%

Matteo Arnaldi
42.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.7%

41.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.5%

42.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fabian Marozsan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Matteo Arnaldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fabian Marozsan than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Fabian Marozsan - Matteo Arnaldi Predictions

Users Predictions: Fabian Marozsan will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Marozsan is ranked ATP: 61. Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 35.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Arnaldi may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Marozsan will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Marozsan won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 0:6. (average 0:2).

Last Results with these Odds

Fabian Marozsan - the odds 1.62 are the expected chance of winning is 58.67%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fabian Marozsan
ATP Montreal
04.08.26	Shintaro Mochizuki - Fabian Marozsan	0:2 ✺
ATP Umag
14.07.26	Fabian Marozsan - Juan Carlos Prado Angelo	Canceled ✺
ATP Wimbledon
01.07.26	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Fabian Marozsan	3:0 ✺
29.06.26	Thiago Augustin Tirante - Fabian Marozsan	0:3 ✺
ATP Mallorca
26.06.26	Fabian Marozsan - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 W?LWL
- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Washington
27.07.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Lorenzo Musetti	Arnaldi M. Retired ✺
ATP Umag
16.07.26	Damir Dzumhur - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1 ✺
15.07.26	Federico Agustin Gomez - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
30.06.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Quentin Halys	1:3 ✺
ATP Eastbourne
23.06.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Giles Hussey	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 ?LWLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Geneva
21.05.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Fabian Marozsan	2:0
ATP Challenger
12.08.22	Fabian Marozsan - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2
ITF Tournaments
14.04.21	Matteo Arnaldi - Fabian Marozsan	2:0

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