Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Tokyo, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 30 September 2026, Wednesday


	Matteo Arnaldi		Rei Sakamoto

	1	2
	2.10	1.73	Watch
	2.20	1.65
	2.18	1.68	Watch
	2.22	1.63	Watch
	2.20	1.70
	1.98	1.85	Watch
	2.10	1.70
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↑ (1.98)	1.71 ↓ (1.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 23.00

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matteo Arnaldi
44.4%

Rei Sakamoto
55.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.2%

52.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Arnaldi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Rei Sakamoto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	0%	28.6%

Matteo Arnaldi - Rei Sakamoto Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Arnaldi will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Sakamoto will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Matteo Arnaldi will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 37., and Sakamoto is ranked ATP: 137..

Sakamoto has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Sakamoto may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Arnaldi has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 2:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Matteo Arnaldi - the odds 1.98 are the expected chance of winning is 47.2%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP US Open
31.08.26	Matteo Arnaldi - James Duckworth	1:3 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
15.08.26	Martin Landaluce - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1 ✺
ATP Montreal
07.08.26	Tallon Griekspoor - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1 ✺
05.08.26	Fabian Marozsan - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2 ✺
ATP Washington
27.07.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Lorenzo Musetti	Arnaldi M. Retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LLLW?
- Rei Sakamoto
Davis Cup World Group I
20.09.26	James Watt - Rei Sakamoto	Canceled ✺
18.09.26	Anton Shepp - Rei Sakamoto	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
08.09.26	Rei Sakamoto - Ji Sung Nam	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
02.09.26	Rei Sakamoto - Francis Tiafoe	0:3 ✺
31.08.26	Aleksandar Vukic - Rei Sakamoto	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 ?WLLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Shanghai
02.10.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Rei Sakamoto	2:0

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