Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Indian Wells, hard - 1/32-finals

Date: 6 March 2026, Friday


	Matteo Berrettini		Alexander Zverev

	1	2
	4.5	1.2	Watch
	4.25	1.22
	4.38	1.25
	4.2	1.23	Watch
	4.2	1.22	Watch
	4.32	1.23	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.31 ↑ (3.15)	1.23 ↓ (1.35)

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matteo Berrettini
22.1%

Alexander Zverev
77.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30%

70%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.2%

68.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Berrettini has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Matteo Berrettini's form might have worsened.

Alexander Zverev has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alexander Zverev's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matteo Berrettini than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Matteo Berrettini, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alexander Zverev than the current prediction. (-9.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alexander Zverev, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.1%	0%	76.9%

Matteo Berrettini - Alexander Zverev Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Berrettini will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). Zverev will win (votes: 10 - 76.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Zverev: 54% – 99.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Berrettini (votes: 2 - 40%). Zverev (votes: 3 - 60%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 Games - Berrettini (4.30) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 Sets - Berrettini (7.46) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

H/A, 1st Set - Berrettini (3.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 Games, 1st Set - Berrettini (4.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

H/A, 2nd Set - Berrettini (3.25) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 Games, 2nd Set - Berrettini (3.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Berrettini (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Zverev (votes: 3 - 27.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Berrettini is ranked ATP: 66. Zverev is ranked ATP: 4.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Berrettini won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Berrettini may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Zverev is a strong favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Berrettini won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:7. (average 1.1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Berrettini
ATP Indian Wells
04.03.26	Matteo Berrettini - Adrian Mannarino	2:1 ✺
ATP Santiago
24.02.26	Emilio Nava - Matteo Berrettini	2:0 ✺
ATP Rio de Janeiro
20.02.26	Ignacio Buse - Matteo Berrettini	2:1 ✺
19.02.26	Matteo Berrettini - Dusan Lajovic	2:1 ✺
17.02.26	Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera - Matteo Berrettini	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WLLWW
- Alexander Zverev
ATP Acapulco
25.02.26	Alexander Zverev - Miomir Kecmanovic	1:2 ✺
24.02.26	Alexander Zverev - Corentin Moutet	2:0 ✺
ATP Australian Open
29.01.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Alexander Zverev	3:2 ✺
26.01.26	Alexander Zverev - Learner Tien	3:1 ✺
25.01.26	Alexander Zverev - Francisco Cerundolo	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Monte Carlo
08.04.25	Alexander Zverev - Matteo Berrettini	1:2
ATP Wimbledon
08.07.23	Alexander Zverev - Matteo Berrettini	0:3
ATP World Tour Finals
14.11.21	Alexander Zverev - Matteo Berrettini	Berrettini M. retired
ATP Madrid
09.05.21	Alexander Zverev - Matteo Berrettini	2:1
ATP Shanghai
12.10.19	Matteo Berrettini - Alexander Zverev	0:2
ATP Roma
14.05.19	Alexander Zverev - Matteo Berrettini	0:2
16.05.18	Matteo Berrettini - Alexander Zverev	0:2

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