Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Indian Wells, hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 4 March 2026, Wednesday


	Matteo Berrettini		Adrian Mannarino

	1	2
	1.44	2.75	Watch
			Watch
	1.42	2.8	Watch
	1.45	2.96
	1.42	2.85	Watch
	1.44	2.75
	1.5	2.64	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↑ (1.41)	2.79 ↑ (2.77)

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matteo Berrettini
65.9%

Adrian Mannarino
34.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.3%

33.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63%

37%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Berrettini has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Adrian Mannarino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Berrettini than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Adrian Mannarino than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Matteo Berrettini - Adrian Mannarino Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Berrettini will win (votes: 8 - 66.7%). Mannarino will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Berrettini: 40% – 93.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Adrian Mannarino will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Berrettini is ranked ATP: 66. Mannarino is ranked ATP: 48.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Berrettini may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Berrettini is seen as the favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Berrettini won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:5. (average 0:2.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Berrettini
ATP Santiago
24.02.26	Emilio Nava - Matteo Berrettini	2:0 ✺
ATP Rio de Janeiro
20.02.26	Ignacio Buse - Matteo Berrettini	2:1 ✺
19.02.26	Matteo Berrettini - Dusan Lajovic	2:1 ✺
17.02.26	Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera - Matteo Berrettini	0:2 ✺
17.02.26	Lorenzo Sonego - Matteo Berrettini	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LLWW?
- Adrian Mannarino
ATP Acapulco
24.02.26	Adrian Mannarino - Sho Shimabukuro	0:2 ✺
24.02.26	Adrian Mannarino - Eliot Spizzirri	Canceled ✺
ATP Dallas
12.02.26	Adrian Mannarino - Ben Shelton	1:2 ✺
11.02.26	Adam Walton - Adrian Mannarino	0:2 ✺
ATP Montpellier
08.02.26	Felix Aliassime-Auger - Adrian Mannarino	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 L?LWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Shanghai
01.10.25	Adrian Mannarino - Matteo Berrettini	2:0
ATP Australian Open
15.01.18	Matteo Berrettini - Adrian Mannarino	0:3

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