Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Indian Wells, hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 4 March 2026, Wednesday


	Mattia Bellucci		Gabriel Diallo

	1	2
	2	1.8	Watch
	2	1.8	Watch
	2.08	1.83
	2.11	1.73	Watch
	2	1.8	Watch
	2.07	1.83	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↓ (2.16)	1.8 ↑ (1.65)

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mattia Bellucci
46.8%

Gabriel Diallo
53.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.3%

56.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

56.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mattia Bellucci has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Gabriel Diallo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mattia Bellucci than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gabriel Diallo than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Mattia Bellucci - Gabriel Diallo Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Bellucci will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Diallo will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bellucci: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Bellucci (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Diallo (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Bellucci is ranked ATP: 94. Diallo is ranked ATP: 38.

Recent performances by Bellucci have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Diallo's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Diallo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Bellucci won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:3. (average 1.5:0.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Mattia Bellucci - the odds 2.16 are the expected chance of winning is 43.31%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Gabriel Diallo - the odds 1.65 are the expected chance of winning is 56.69%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mattia Bellucci
ATP Acapulco
26.02.26	Francis Tiafoe - Mattia Bellucci	2:0 ✺
25.02.26	Mattia Bellucci - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:0 ✺
24.02.26	Rinky Hijikata - Mattia Bellucci	0:2 ✺
24.02.26	Sebastian Korda - Mattia Bellucci	Canceled ✺
ATP Delray Beach
17.02.26	Miomir Kecmanovic - Mattia Bellucci	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.4 LWW?L
- Gabriel Diallo
ATP Delray Beach
17.02.26	Adam Walton - Gabriel Diallo	2:0 ✺
17.02.26	Eliot Spizzirri - Gabriel Diallo	Canceled ✺
ATP Dallas
10.02.26	Gabriel Diallo - Ben Shelton	0:2 ✺
Davis Cup World Group
07.02.26	Gabriel Diallo - Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva	Canceled ✺
06.02.26	Gabriel Diallo - Gustavo Heide	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1 L?L?L

Latest Head to Head

ATP Acapulco
23.02.25	Mattia Bellucci - Gabriel Diallo	0:2
ATP Challenger
16.08.24	Mattia Bellucci - Gabriel Diallo	2:0
11.06.24	Gabriel Diallo - Mattia Bellucci	1:2
16.08.23	Gabriel Diallo - Mattia Bellucci	0:2

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