Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Braga - Qualification, clay - Final

Date: 29 September 2025, Monday


	Max Houkes		Lilian Marmousez

	1	2
			Watch
	2.12	1.64	Watch
	2.1	1.72
	2.33	1.51	Watch
	2.08	1.7	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↓ (2.33)	1.64 ↑ (1.51)

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Max Houkes
43.2%

Lilian Marmousez
56.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.3%

60.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.3%

62.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Max Houkes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Lilian Marmousez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Max Houkes than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Max Houkes that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lilian Marmousez than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lilian Marmousez could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Max Houkes - Lilian Marmousez Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Houkes (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Houkes is ranked ATP: 292. Marmousez is ranked ATP: 359.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Houkes may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Marmousez might have a minor edge in this game.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Max Houkes
ATP Challenger
28.09.25	Max Houkes - Mate Valkusz	2:1 ✺
22.09.25	Max Houkes - Alexander Ritschard	1:2 ✺
21.09.25	Max Houkes - Aristotelis Thanos	2:1 ✺
ITF Tournaments
07.09.25	Max Houkes - Gilles Arnaud Bailly	1:2 ✺
06.09.25	Max Houkes - Daniel Siniakov	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WLWLW
- Lilian Marmousez
ATP Challenger
28.09.25	Alexander Donski - Lilian Marmousez	0:2 ✺
21.09.25	Orlando Luz - Lilian Marmousez	Marmousez L. retired ✺
ITF Tournaments
03.09.25	Niklas Schell - Lilian Marmousez	Marmousez L. retired ✺
31.08.25	Florian Broska - Lilian Marmousez	2:0 ✺
30.08.25	Eric Vanshelboim - Lilian Marmousez	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 W??LW

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