Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - Final

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	ESPN 7
Czech-republic	CANAL+ Sport 2, Oneplay
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	DAZN
France	beIN Sports 2, beIN Sports 3
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis
Greece	Nova Sports 6
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 2
Romania	Digi Sport 3
Slovakia	Voyo
Sweden	DAZN
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Tennis


	Mirra Andreeva		Marta Kostyuk

	1	2
	1.67	2.2	Watch
	1.64	2.27	Watch
	1.75	2.28
	1.75	2.27	Watch
	1.67	2.2
	1.68	2.29	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↑ (1.63)	2.25 ↑ (2.24)

The best margin for this event is 1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mirra Andreeva
57.1%

Marta Kostyuk
42.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.9%

42.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.6%

37.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mirra Andreeva has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Marta Kostyuk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mirra Andreeva than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mirra Andreeva, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marta Kostyuk than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Marta Kostyuk, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.8%	0%	18.2%

Mirra Andreeva - Marta Kostyuk Predictions

Users Predictions: Mirra Andreeva will win (27 of 31 users predict this - 87.1%).
Confidence interval (95%): 75.3% – 98.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Mirra Andreeva will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Andreeva is ranked WTA: 8. Kostyuk is ranked WTA: 23.

In recent matches, both players have secured multiple victories.

Kostyuk may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Andreeva will hold a modest advantage in this match.

We predict that Andreeva will win today's game, with odds of 1.68.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Andreeva won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2. (average 0:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Marta Kostyuk - the odds 2.24 are the expected chance of winning is 42.12%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mirra Andreeva
WTA Madrid
30.04.26	Hailey Baptiste - Mirra Andreeva	0:2 ✺
28.04.26	Leylah Annie Fernandez - Mirra Andreeva	0:2 ✺
27.04.26	Mirra Andreeva - Anna Bondar	2:1 ✺
25.04.26	Mirra Andreeva - Dalma Galfi	2:0 ✺
23.04.26	Mirra Andreeva - Panna Udvardy	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WWWWW
- Marta Kostyuk
WTA Madrid
30.04.26	Marta Kostyuk - Anastasia Potapova	2:1 ✺
29.04.26	Marta Kostyuk - Linda Noskova	2:0 ✺
27.04.26	Marta Kostyuk - Caty McNally	2:0 ✺
26.04.26	Jessica Pegula - Marta Kostyuk	0:2 ✺
24.04.26	Yulia Putintseva - Marta Kostyuk	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

WTA Brisbane
09.01.26	Mirra Andreeva - Marta Kostyuk	0:2
WTA Stuttgart
16.04.25	Mirra Andreeva - Marta Kostyuk	Canceled

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