Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: Tokyo, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 27 October 2026, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Tokyo 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Naomi Osaka		Jasmine Paolini

	1	2
	1.3	3.5	Watch
	1.25	3.8
	1.29	3.65	Watch
	1.29	3.46	Watch
	1.30	3.60
	1.31	3.51	Watch
	1.29	3.40
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.29 ↓ (1.4)	3.56 ↑ (2.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.00

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Naomi Osaka
73.4%

Jasmine Paolini
26.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

67.7%

32.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.4%

32.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Naomi Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Naomi Osaka's performance.

Jasmine Paolini has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Jasmine Paolini might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Naomi Osaka than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Naomi Osaka that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jasmine Paolini than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Jasmine Paolini could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Naomi Osaka - Jasmine Paolini Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2.5 Games - Osaka (1.43) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Naomi Osaka will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Osaka (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Osaka is ranked WTA: 18., and Paolini is ranked WTA: 35..

Both players have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

Paolini may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Osaka carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Osaka has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 1:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Naomi Osaka - the odds 1.4 are the expected chance of winning is 67.75%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Naomi Osaka
WTA Beijing
06.10.26	Karolina Muchova - Naomi Osaka	2:1 ✺
04.10.26	Sara Bejlek - Naomi Osaka	0:2 ✺
02.10.26	Maria Timofeeva - Naomi Osaka	1:2 ✺
WTA US Open
07.09.26	Naomi Osaka - Elena Rybakina	0:2 ✺
05.09.26	Naomi Osaka - Elise Mertens	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LWWLW
- Jasmine Paolini
WTA Ningbo
22.10.26	Iva Jovic - Jasmine Paolini	2:0 ✺
20.10.26	Jasmine Paolini - Anhelina Kalinina	2:0 ✺
WTA Wuhan
15.10.26	Jasmine Paolini - Sonay Kartal	0:2 ✺
14.10.26	Jasmine Paolini - Nikola Bartunkova	2:0 ✺
12.10.26	Jasmine Paolini - Sara Bejlek	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

WTA Miami
24.03.25	Naomi Osaka - Jasmine Paolini	1:2

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