Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Thionville - Qualification, hard - Final

Date: 2 March 2026, Monday


	Neil Oberleitner		Keegan Smith

	1	2
			Watch
	3.7	1.23	Watch
	3.99	1.25
	10.46	1.02	Watch
	3.75	1.25
	3.57	1.25	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.09 ↑ (2.91)	1.2 ↓ (1.36)

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Neil Oberleitner
19.1%

Keegan Smith
80.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.8%

68.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.1%

64.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Neil Oberleitner has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Neil Oberleitner's form might have worsened.

Keegan Smith has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Keegan Smith's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Neil Oberleitner than the current prediction. (+16%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Neil Oberleitner, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Keegan Smith than the current prediction. (-16%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Keegan Smith, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Neil Oberleitner - Keegan Smith Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Oberleitner will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Smith will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Oberleitner (votes: 1 - 50%). Smith (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Oberleitner is ranked ATP: 426. Smith is ranked ATP: 306.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Smith may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Smith is considered a favorite.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Neil Oberleitner
ATP Challenger
01.03.26	Neil Oberleitner - Arthur Bouquier	2:1 ✺
27.01.26	Lukas Pokorny - Neil Oberleitner	2:0 ✺
26.01.26	Radu Albot - Neil Oberleitner	0:2 ✺
13.01.26	Yi Zhou - Neil Oberleitner	2:0 ✺
11.01.26	Hikaru Shiraishi - Neil Oberleitner	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 WLWLW
- Keegan Smith
ATP Challenger
01.03.26	Matteo Martineau - Keegan Smith	0:2 ✺
24.02.26	Keegan Smith - Geoffrey Blancaneaux	0:2 ✺
23.02.26	Keegan Smith - Jakub Paul	2:0 ✺
22.02.26	Keegan Smith - Max Hans Rehberg	2:1 ✺
10.02.26	Daniel Milavsky - Keegan Smith	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WLWWL

Neil Oberleitner - Keegan Smith: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide