Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Thionville - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 1 March 2026, Sunday


	Matteo Martineau		Keegan Smith

	1	2
			Watch
	1.84	1.87	Watch
	1.82	2.01
	3.53	1.26	Watch
	1.73	2	Watch
	1.81	1.87	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↑ (1.84)	1.8 ↓ (1.84)

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matteo Martineau
45.6%

Keegan Smith
54.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.4%

53.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Martineau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Keegan Smith has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matteo Martineau than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Keegan Smith than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	0%	11.1%

Matteo Martineau - Keegan Smith Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Matteo Martineau will win (16 of 18 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 74.37% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Matteo Martineau will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Martineau is ranked ATP: 350. Smith is ranked ATP: 306.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Martineau may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Martineau could have a small edge in this match.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Matteo Martineau - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 41% of matches with these odds.

Keegan Smith - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 80% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Martineau
ATP Challenger
27.02.26	Sebastian Ofner - Matteo Martineau	2:0 ✺
26.02.26	Matteo Martineau - Jurij Rodionov	2:0 ✺
24.02.26	Matteo Martineau - Antoine Ghibaudo	2:1 ✺
08.02.26	Matteo Martineau - Henri Squire	1:2 ✺
ATP Montpellier
01.02.26	Matteo Martineau - Martin Damm	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LWWLL
- Keegan Smith
ATP Challenger
24.02.26	Keegan Smith - Geoffrey Blancaneaux	0:2 ✺
23.02.26	Keegan Smith - Jakub Paul	2:0 ✺
22.02.26	Keegan Smith - Max Hans Rehberg	2:1 ✺
10.02.26	Daniel Milavsky - Keegan Smith	2:0 ✺
07.02.26	Keegan Smith - Colton Smith	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LWWLL

Matteo Martineau - Keegan Smith: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide