Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Porto 2, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 29 August 2025, Friday


	Nicolas Alvarez Varona		Gilles Arnaud Bailly

	1	2
	2	1.73	Watch
	2	1.72	Watch
	2	1.7	Watch
	2.13	1.76
	2.05	1.75	Watch
	2.1	1.67	Watch
	1.99	1.75	Watch
	1.87	1.87
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↑ (1.87)	1.74 ↓ (1.87)

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nicolas Alvarez Varona
46.4%

Gilles Arnaud Bailly
53.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.9%

47.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nicolas Alvarez Varona has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Gilles Arnaud Bailly has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nicolas Alvarez Varona than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nicolas Alvarez Varona, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gilles Arnaud Bailly than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Gilles Arnaud Bailly, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Nicolas Alvarez Varona - Gilles Arnaud Bailly Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Alvarez Varona will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Bailly will win (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Alvarez Varona is ranked ATP: 282. Bailly is ranked ATP: 341.

Alvarez Varona is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Bailly's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Alvarez Varona may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Gilles Arnaud Bailly - the odds 1.87 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nicolas Alvarez Varona
ATP Challenger
27.08.25	Alex Barrena - Nicolas Alvarez Varona	0:2 ✺
25.08.25	Nicolas Alvarez Varona - Robert Strombachs	2:0 ✺
29.07.25	Nicolas Alvarez Varona - Matias Soto	Alvarez Varona N. retired ✺
27.07.25	Nicolas Alvarez Varona - George Loffhagen	1:2 ✺
26.07.25	Aryan Shah - Nicolas Alvarez Varona	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WW?LW
- Gilles Arnaud Bailly
ATP Challenger
27.08.25	Gilles Arnaud Bailly - Pedro Araujo	2:0 ✺
25.08.25	Gilles Arnaud Bailly - Maxim Mrva	2:0 ✺
20.08.25	Gilles Arnaud Bailly - Benito Sanchez Martinez	0:2 ✺
19.08.25	Juan Carlos Prado Angelo - Gilles Arnaud Bailly	1:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
17.08.25	Lilian Marmousez - Gilles Arnaud Bailly	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WWLWL

Nicolas Alvarez Varona - Gilles Arnaud Bailly: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide