Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Murcia, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 16 March 2026, Monday


	Miguel Damas		Jan Choinski

	1	2
	2.75	1.4	Watch
			Watch
	2.85	1.38
	2.99	1.43
	2.85	1.37	Watch
	3.25	1.33	Watch
	2.89	1.36	Watch
	2.34	1.51
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.85 ↑ (2.41)	1.4 ↓ (1.52)

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Miguel Damas
32.9%

Jan Choinski
67.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.6%

61.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.6%

56.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Miguel Damas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Miguel Damas's form might have worsened.

Jan Choinski has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Jan Choinski's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Miguel Damas than the current prediction. (+10.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Miguel Damas, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jan Choinski than the current prediction. (-10.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Jan Choinski, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Miguel Damas - Jan Choinski Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Damas will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Choinski will win (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Damas: 45% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +4 Games - Damas (1.79) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 Sets - Damas (1.73) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Miguel Damas will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Damas (votes: 6 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Damas is ranked ATP: 278. Choinski is ranked ATP: 122.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Damas may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Choinski could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Damas won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Miguel Damas - the odds 2.41 are the expected chance of winning is 38.59%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Jan Choinski - the odds 1.52 are the expected chance of winning is 61.41%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Miguel Damas
ATP Challenger
05.03.26	Miguel Damas - Thiago Monteiro	0:2 ✺
04.03.26	Alvaro Guillen Meza - Miguel Damas	0:2 ✺
01.03.26	Miguel Damas - Facundo Diaz Acosta	1:2 ✺
28.02.26	Diego Dedura-Palomero - Miguel Damas	1:2 ✺
27.02.26	Miguel Damas - Gianluca Cadenasso	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 LWLWW
- Jan Choinski
ATP Challenger
06.03.26	Nicolai Budkov Kjaer - Jan Choinski	2:0 ✺
04.03.26	Roman Safiullin - Jan Choinski	1:2 ✺
03.03.26	Mae Malige - Jan Choinski	0:2 ✺
ATP Dubai
22.02.26	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard - Jan Choinski	2:1 ✺
21.02.26	Jan Choinski - Jesper De Jong	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
07.10.25	Jan Choinski - Miguel Damas	2:1

Miguel Damas - Jan Choinski: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide