Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: US Open, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 5 September 2025, Friday

Location: Arthur Ashe Stadium (New York, NY)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belgium	HBO Max, HBO Max
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	HBO Max
Brazil	ESPN 2
Bulgaria	HBO Max
Colombia	ESPN 2
Croatia	HBO Max
Czech-republic	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Denmark	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Finland	HBO Max
France	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Germany	Eurosport 1, Sky Sport Tennis, Sky Sport Top Event
Hungary	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Italy	Eurosport 1, Super Tennis
Moldova	HBO Max
Montenegro	HBO Max
Netherlands	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
North-macedonia	HBO Max
Norway	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Poland	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Romania	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Serbia	HBO Max
Slovenia	HBO Max
Spain	HBO Max
Sweden	HBO Max
Switzerland	RTS 2, RTS 2, SRF Info, SRF Info
Turkey	Eurosport 1
Ukraine	Eurosport 1
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports Tennis


	Novak Djokovic		Carlos Alcaraz Garfia

	1	2
	4	1.25	Watch
	3.9	1.26
	3.83	1.25	Watch
	4.07	1.28
	3.77	1.29	Watch
	4.1	1.3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.95 ↑ (3.35)	1.27 ↓ (1.35)

The best margin for this event is 1.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Novak Djokovic
24.4%

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
75.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.7%

71.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.3%

68.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Novak Djokovic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Novak Djokovic than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Novak Djokovic, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlos Alcaraz Garfia than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Carlos Alcaraz Garfia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44%	0%	56%

Novak Djokovic - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia Predictions

Users Predictions: 50 users predict this event. Djokovic will win (votes: 22 - 44%). Alcaraz Garfia will win (votes: 28 - 56%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alcaraz Garfia: 42.2% – 69.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 25 Selected Experts predict this event. Djokovic (votes: 13 - 52%). Alcaraz Garfia (votes: 12 - 48%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 Games - Djokovic (3.30) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 Sets - Djokovic (2.24) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 3.5 Sets - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 9.5 Games, 2nd Set - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 36.5 Games - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 38.5 Games - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH -3 Games - Alcaraz Garfia (1.51) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 29 Selected Experts predict this event. Djokovic (votes: 15 - 51.7%). Alcaraz Garfia (votes: 14 - 48.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:3

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Preview

Djokovic is ranked ATP: 7. Alcaraz Garfia is ranked ATP: 2.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Djokovic won 3.

Both players have triumphed in their latest matches.

In this match, Alcaraz Garfia is the team to beat.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Djokovic won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 16:13. (average 1.8:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Novak Djokovic
ATP US Open
02.09.25	Novak Djokovic - Taylor Harry Fritz	3:1 ✺
31.08.25	Novak Djokovic - Jan-Lennard Struff	3:0 ✺
29.08.25	Novak Djokovic - Cameron Norrie	3:1 ✺
27.08.25	Novak Djokovic - Zachary Svajda	3:1 ✺
24.08.25	Novak Djokovic - Learner Tien	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WWWWW
- Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
ATP US Open
02.09.25	Jiri Lehecka - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:3 ✺
31.08.25	Arthur Rinderknech - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:3 ✺
29.08.25	Luciano Darderi - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:3 ✺
27.08.25	Mattia Bellucci - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:3 ✺
25.08.25	Reilly Opelka - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Australian Open
21.01.25	Novak Djokovic - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	3:1
ATP Olympic Games
04.08.24	Novak Djokovic - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	2:0
ATP Wimbledon
14.07.24	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Novak Djokovic	3:0
Exhibition Others Matches Tennis Men
27.12.23	Novak Djokovic - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	1:2
ATP World Tour Finals
18.11.23	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Novak Djokovic	0:2
ATP Cincinnati
20.08.23	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Novak Djokovic	1:2
ATP Wimbledon
16.07.23	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Novak Djokovic	3:2

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