Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: US Open, hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 25 August 2025, Monday

Location: Arthur Ashe Stadium (New York, NY)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Reilly Opelka		Carlos Alcaraz Garfia

	1	2
	13	1.04	Watch
	8.75	1.06
	10	1.05	Watch
	14.49	1.05
	9.69	1.05	Watch
	10	1.05
	12.9	1.03	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	11.26 ↑ (11)	1.05 (1.05)

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Reilly Opelka
8.5%

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
91.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

8.7%

91.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Reilly Opelka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	0%	44.4%

Reilly Opelka - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Opelka will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Alcaraz Garfia will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Opelka: 29% – 96%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +2.5 Sets - Opelka (2.05) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

O/U 9.5 Games, 1st Set - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Opelka (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Alcaraz Garfia (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:3

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Preview

Opelka is ranked ATP: 73. Alcaraz Garfia is ranked ATP: 2.

Opelka has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Alcaraz Garfia is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Alcaraz Garfia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Alcaraz Garfia is the undeniable favorite.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Reilly Opelka
ATP Cincinnati
12.08.25	Reilly Opelka - Francisco Comesana	1:2 ✺
10.08.25	Alex De Minaur - Reilly Opelka	0:2 ✺
08.08.25	Hugo Dellien - Reilly Opelka	0:2 ✺
ATP Toronto
31.07.25	Learner Tien - Reilly Opelka	2:0 ✺
29.07.25	Reilly Opelka - Tomas Machac	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 LWWLW
- Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
ATP Cincinnati
18.08.25	Jannik Sinner - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	Sinner J. retired ✺
16.08.25	Alexander Zverev - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:2 ✺
15.08.25	Andrey Rublev - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	1:2 ✺
13.08.25	Luca Nardi - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:2 ✺
12.08.25	Hamad Medjedovic - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 ?WWWW

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