Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Beijing, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 5 October 2026, Monday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports 1
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Premier Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4, Ziggo Sport
Poland	Polsat Sport 1
Romania	Digi Sport 4, Prima Sport 3, Prima Sport PPV 2
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Tennis


	Novak Djokovic		Daniil Medvedev

	1	2
	2.10	1.73	Watch
	2.05	1.75
	2.10	1.73	Watch
	2.14	1.74	Watch
	2.20	1.71
	2.12	1.74	Watch
	2.10	1.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↓ (2.3)	1.73 ↑ (1.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 23.00

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Novak Djokovic
45%

Daniil Medvedev
55%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.2%

58.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.6%

58.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Novak Djokovic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Daniil Medvedev has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Novak Djokovic than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Daniil Medvedev than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76%	0%	24%

Novak Djokovic - Daniil Medvedev Predictions

Users Predictions: 25 users predict this event. Djokovic will win (votes: 19 - 76%). Medvedev will win (votes: 6 - 24%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Djokovic: 59.3% – 92.7%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 22.5 Games - over (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Novak Djokovic will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Djokovic is ranked ATP: 11., and Medvedev is ranked ATP: 6..

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Djokovic won 4.

Djokovic has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Medvedev is on a roll with consecutive victories (last 5 matches: 5 wins).

Djokovic could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Medvedev holding a narrow advantage.

Our forecast points to a victory for Medvedev in today's match, at odds of 1.63.

In the last 15 head-to-head meetings, Djokovic has recorded 10 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 21:15 (averaging 1.4:1 goals per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Novak Djokovic
ATP Beijing
04.10.26	Alexander Zverev - Novak Djokovic	1:2 ✺
02.10.26	Bu Yunchaokete - Novak Djokovic	1:2 ✺
30.09.26	Nuno Borges - Novak Djokovic	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
30.08.26	Mariano Navone - Novak Djokovic	3:2 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
15.08.26	Novak Djokovic - Thiago Augustin Tirante	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWWLL
- Daniil Medvedev
ATP Beijing
04.10.26	Daniil Medvedev - Francisco Cerundolo	2:0 ✺
03.10.26	Daniil Medvedev - Jan-Lennard Struff	2:0 ✺
02.10.26	Daniil Medvedev - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:0 ✺
ATP Hangzhou
29.09.26	Daniil Medvedev - Andrey Rublev	2:0 ✺
28.09.26	Daniil Medvedev - Roman Safiullin	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP US Open
10.09.23	Daniil Medvedev - Novak Djokovic	0:3
ATP Dubai
03.03.23	Novak Djokovic - Daniil Medvedev	0:2
ATP Adelaide
07.01.23	Novak Djokovic - Daniil Medvedev	2:0
ATP World Tour Finals
18.11.22	Daniil Medvedev - Novak Djokovic	1:2
ATP Astana
08.10.22	Novak Djokovic - Daniil Medvedev	Medvedev D. retired
ATP Paris
07.11.21	Novak Djokovic - Daniil Medvedev	2:1
ATP US Open
12.09.21	Novak Djokovic - Daniil Medvedev	0:3

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