Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Beijing, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 2 October 2026, Friday


	Daniil Medvedev		Pablo Carreno-Busta

	1	2
	1.2	4.5	Watch
	1.19	4.50
	1.2	4.4	Watch
	1.19	4.44	Watch
	1.18	4.75
	1.24	4.33	Watch
	1.2	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.2 ↓ (1.26)	4.47 ↑ (3.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 20.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Daniil Medvedev
78.9%

Pablo Carreno-Busta
21.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

74.2%

25.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daniil Medvedev has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Pablo Carreno-Busta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Daniil Medvedev - Pablo Carreno Busta Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Medvedev will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Carreno Busta will win (votes: 2 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Medvedev (votes: 1 - 50%). Carreno Busta (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Medvedev is ranked ATP: 6., and Carreno Busta is ranked ATP: 66..

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Medvedev won 4.

Medvedev is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Carreno Busta has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Medvedev may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this matchup, Medvedev is considered the favorite to take the win.

In the last 7 head-to-head meetings, Medvedev has recorded 5 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 10:5 (averaging 1.4:0.7 goals per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Daniil Medvedev - the odds 1.26 are the expected chance of winning is 74.23%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daniil Medvedev
ATP Hangzhou
29.09.26	Daniil Medvedev - Andrey Rublev	2:0 ✺
28.09.26	Daniil Medvedev - Roman Safiullin	2:0 ✺
27.09.26	Daniil Medvedev - Chak Lam Coleman Wong	2:1 ✺
26.09.26	Daniil Medvedev - Valentin Royer	2:0 ✺
ATP US Open
06.09.26	Daniil Medvedev - Francis Tiafoe	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWWWL
- Pablo Carreno-Busta
ATP Beijing
29.09.26	Adrian Mannarino - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2 ✺
28.09.26	Yi Zhou - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
30.08.26	Jiri Lehecka - Pablo Carreno-Busta	3:1 ✺
ATP Winston-Salem
23.08.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Daniel Vallejo	Carreno-Busta P. Retired ✺
ATP Cincinnati
16.08.26	Andrey Rublev - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WWL?L

Latest Head to Head

Davis Cup World Group
28.11.21	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Daniil Medvedev	0:2
ATP Cincinnati
20.08.21	Daniil Medvedev - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:0
ATP Olympic Games
29.07.21	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Daniil Medvedev	2:0
ATP Mallorca
25.06.21	Daniil Medvedev - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:1
ATP Paris
30.10.18	Daniil Medvedev - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:0
ATP Indian Wells
12.03.18	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Daniil Medvedev	2:0
ATP Moscow
19.10.17	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Daniil Medvedev	0:2

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