Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Australian Open, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 30 January 2026, Friday

Location: Rod Laver Arena (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN
Belgium	HBO Max, HBO Max
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	HBO Max
Brazil	ESPN
Bulgaria	HBO Max
Canada	RDS App
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	HBO Max
Czech-republic	HBO Max
Denmark	HBO Max
Finland	HBO Max
France	HBO Max
Hungary	HBO Max
Mexico	ESPN
Moldova	HBO Max
Montenegro	HBO Max
Netherlands	HBO Max
North-macedonia	HBO Max
Norway	HBO Max
Peru	ESPN
Poland	HBO Max
Romania	HBO Max
Serbia	HBO Max
Slovenia	HBO Max
Spain	HBO Max, Movistar Plus+
Sweden	HBO Max
United-kingdom	Discovery+
Usa	ESPN USA
Venezuela	ESPN


	Novak Djokovic		Jannik Sinner

	1	2
	9	1.07	Watch
	8.6	1.07	Watch
	9.52	1.09
	8.35	1.08	Watch
	8	1.06	Watch
	9.4	1.08	Watch
	9.5	1.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.91 ↑ (7.93)	1.07 ↓ (1.08)

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Novak Djokovic
10.7%

Jannik Sinner
89.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

12%

88%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Novak Djokovic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Jannik Sinner has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
31.4%	0%	68.6%

Novak Djokovic - Jannik Sinner Predictions

Users Predictions: 33 users predict this event. Djokovic will win (votes: 11 - 33.3%). Sinner will win (votes: 22 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sinner: 50.6% – 82.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 20 Selected Experts predict this event. Djokovic (votes: 8 - 40%). Sinner (votes: 12 - 60%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +2.5 Sets - Djokovic (2.05) (votes: 6 - 50%) .

AH +7.5 Games - Djokovic (1.91) (votes: 6 - 60%) .

O/U 33.5 Games - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 Sets - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 32 Games - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 Sets - Sinner (1.02) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -2.5 Games, 3rd Set - Sinner (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 45 Selected Experts predict this event. Djokovic (votes: 20 - 44.4%). Sinner (votes: 25 - 55.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:3

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Preview

Djokovic is ranked ATP: 4. Sinner is ranked ATP: 2.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Djokovic won 0.

Djokovic has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Sinner is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, Sinner is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Djokovic won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 15:21. (average 1.2:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Novak Djokovic
ATP Australian Open
27.01.26	Lorenzo Musetti - Novak Djokovic	Musetti L. retired ✺
26.01.26	Jakub Mensik - Novak Djokovic	Djokovic N. walkover ✺
24.01.26	Botic Van De Zandschulp - Novak Djokovic	0:3 ✺
21.01.26	Francesco Maestrelli - Novak Djokovic	0:3 ✺
19.01.26	Pedro Martinez Portero - Novak Djokovic	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 ??WWW
- Jannik Sinner
ATP Australian Open
28.01.26	Ben Shelton - Jannik Sinner	0:3 ✺
26.01.26	Luciano Darderi - Jannik Sinner	0:3 ✺
23.01.26	Eliot Spizzirri - Jannik Sinner	1:3 ✺
22.01.26	James Duckworth - Jannik Sinner	0:3 ✺
20.01.26	Hugo Gaston - Jannik Sinner	Gaston H. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WWWW?

Latest Head to Head

Exhibition Six Kings Slam Men
16.10.25	Jannik Sinner - Novak Djokovic	2:0
ATP Wimbledon
11.07.25	Jannik Sinner - Novak Djokovic	3:0
ATP Roland Garros
06.06.25	Jannik Sinner - Novak Djokovic	3:0
Exhibition Six Kings Slam Men
17.10.24	Novak Djokovic - Jannik Sinner	1:2
ATP Shanghai
13.10.24	Jannik Sinner - Novak Djokovic	2:0
ATP Australian Open
25.01.24	Novak Djokovic - Jannik Sinner	1:3
Davis Cup World Group
25.11.23	Jannik Sinner - Novak Djokovic	2:1

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