Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Australian Open, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 26 January 2026, Monday

Location: Melbourne Park (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN
Belgium	HBO Max, HBO Max
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	HBO Max
Brazil	ESPN
Bulgaria	HBO Max
Canada	RDS App
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	HBO Max
Czech-republic	HBO Max
Denmark	HBO Max
Finland	HBO Max
France	HBO Max
Hungary	HBO Max
Mexico	ESPN
Moldova	HBO Max
Montenegro	HBO Max
Netherlands	HBO Max
North-macedonia	HBO Max
Norway	HBO Max
Peru	ESPN
Poland	HBO Max
Romania	HBO Max
Serbia	HBO Max
Slovenia	HBO Max
Spain	HBO Max
Sweden	HBO Max
United-kingdom	Discovery+
Usa	ESPN USA
Venezuela	ESPN


	Luciano Darderi		Jannik Sinner

	1	2
	26	1.01	Watch
	17	1.01	Watch
	25.71	1.02
	22.91	1	Watch
	17	1.01
	24	1.02	Watch
	16	1.01
Avarage Now (Initially)	21.23 ↑ (12.13)	1.01 ↓ (1.03)

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luciano Darderi
4.5%

Jannik Sinner
95.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

7.8%

92.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luciano Darderi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Jannik Sinner has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
58.3%	0%	41.7%

Luciano Darderi - Jannik Sinner Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Darderi will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). Sinner will win (votes: 5 - 41.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Darderi: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Sinner (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

H/A, 1st Set - Darderi (6.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +9.5 Games - Darderi (1.81) (votes: 2 - 50%) .

AH +2.5 Sets - Darderi (3.20) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 28.5 Games - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Darderi (votes: 4 - 50%). Sinner (votes: 4 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:3

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Preview

Darderi is ranked ATP: 25. Sinner is ranked ATP: 2.

Darderi is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Darderi may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Sinner is the undeniable favorite.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luciano Darderi
ATP Australian Open
23.01.26	Karen Khachanov - Luciano Darderi	1:3 ✺
21.01.26	Sebastian Baez - Luciano Darderi	1:3 ✺
19.01.26	Christian Garin - Luciano Darderi	0:3 ✺
ATP Auckland
14.01.26	Luciano Darderi - Marcos Giron	1:2 ✺
13.01.26	Luciano Darderi - Alejandro Tabilo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 WWWLW
- Jannik Sinner
ATP Australian Open
23.01.26	Eliot Spizzirri - Jannik Sinner	1:3 ✺
22.01.26	James Duckworth - Jannik Sinner	0:3 ✺
20.01.26	Hugo Gaston - Jannik Sinner	Gaston H. retired ✺
Exhibition Others Matches Tennis Men
10.01.26	Jannik Sinner - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:2 ✺
ATP World Tour Finals
16.11.25	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Jannik Sinner	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WW?LW

Luciano Darderi - Jannik Sinner: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide