Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/64-finals

Date: 23 April 2025, Wednesday


	Nuno Borges		Pablo Carreno-Busta

	1	2
	1.62	2.3	Watch
	1.65	2.2	Watch
	1.78	2.05	Watch
	1.81	2.09
	1.78	1.99	Watch
	1.8	2	Watch
	1.78	2.04	Watch
	1.78	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↑ (1.58)	2.09 ↓ (2.18)

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nuno Borges
54.4%

Pablo Carreno-Busta
45.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58%

42%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.3%

39.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nuno Borges has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Pablo Carreno-Busta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nuno Borges than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nuno Borges, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pablo Carreno-Busta than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Pablo Carreno-Busta, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Nuno Borges - Pablo Carreno Busta Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Borges will win (votes: 7 - 53.8%). Carreno Busta will win (votes: 6 - 46.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Borges: 26.7% – 80.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Carreno Busta (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Borges is ranked ATP: 41. Carreno Busta is ranked ATP: 96.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Carreno Busta could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The chances to win of two players are almost the same in this match.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nuno Borges
ATP Monte Carlo
10.04.25	Nuno Borges - Stefanos Tsitsipas	0:2 ✺
09.04.25	Nuno Borges - Pedro Martinez Portero	2:1 ✺
08.04.25	Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune - Nuno Borges	Rune H. retired ✺
ATP Marrakech
04.04.25	Roberto Carballes Baena - Nuno Borges	2:0 ✺
02.04.25	Raphael Collignon - Nuno Borges	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LW?LW
- Pablo Carreno-Busta
ATP Barcelona
15.04.25	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Arthur Fils	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
12.04.25	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Kamil Majchrzak	1:2 ✺
10.04.25	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Calvin Hemery	2:1 ✺
08.04.25	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Jakub Paul	2:0 ✺
ATP Marrakech
03.04.25	Tallon Griekspoor - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LLWWL

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