Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 12 April 2025, Saturday


	Pablo Carreno-Busta		Kamil Majchrzak

	1	2
	2.38	1.53	Watch
	2.25	1.57	Watch
	2.25	1.57	Watch
	2.31	1.6	Watch
	2.25	1.57	Watch
	2.36	1.55	Watch
	2.25	1.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↑ (1.75)	1.57 ↓ (1.96)

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Pablo Carreno-Busta
40.6%

Kamil Majchrzak
59.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.8%

47.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.9%

47.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pablo Carreno-Busta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Pablo Carreno-Busta's form might have worsened.

Kamil Majchrzak has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Kamil Majchrzak's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pablo Carreno-Busta than the current prediction. (+12.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Pablo Carreno-Busta, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kamil Majchrzak than the current prediction. (-12.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Kamil Majchrzak, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.9%	0%	81.1%

Pablo Carreno Busta - Kamil Majchrzak Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -3 Games - Majchrzak (2.10) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Kamil Majchrzak will win (30 of 37 users predict this - 81.08%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.46% – 93.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Kamil Majchrzak will win (16 of 20 users predict this - 80%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 22 Selected Experts predict this event. Carreno Busta (votes: 4 - 18.2%). Majchrzak (votes: 18 - 81.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

#ad

Preview

Carreno Busta is ranked ATP: 103. Majchrzak is ranked ATP: 102.

Recent matches Carreno Busta is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Majchrzak is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Carreno Busta could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The chances to win of two players are almost the same in this match.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Carreno Busta won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4:4 (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pablo Carreno-Busta
ATP Challenger
10.04.25	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Calvin Hemery	2:1 ✺
08.04.25	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Jakub Paul	2:0 ✺
ATP Marrakech
03.04.25	Tallon Griekspoor - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:1 ✺
01.04.25	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Younes Lalami Laaroussi	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
28.03.25	Marin Cilic - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WWLWL
- Kamil Majchrzak
ATP Challenger
10.04.25	Carlos Taberner - Kamil Majchrzak	0:2 ✺
08.04.25	Kamil Majchrzak - Hugo Dellien	2:0 ✺
ATP Marrakech
05.04.25	Tallon Griekspoor - Kamil Majchrzak	2:0 ✺
04.04.25	Alexandre Muller - Kamil Majchrzak	0:2 ✺
02.04.25	Jesper De Jong - Kamil Majchrzak	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Australian Open
14.01.25	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Kamil Majchrzak	3:0
ATP Challenger
20.06.24	Kamil Majchrzak - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:1
ATP Cup
07.01.22	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Kamil Majchrzak	Canceled
ATP Challenger
09.10.15	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Kamil Majchrzak	0:2

Upcoming Matches