Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Davis Cup - World Group - Qualification

Date: 13 September 2025, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Davis Cup 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Italy	12:45	Super Tennis


	Pablo Carreno-Busta		Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune

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Pablo Carreno-Busta
30.1%

Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune
69.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

33.3%

66.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35%

65%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pablo Carreno-Busta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pablo Carreno-Busta than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Carreno Busta (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Carreno Busta is ranked ATP: 123. Rune is ranked ATP: 11.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Carreno Busta may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Rune is considered a favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Carreno Busta won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:3. (average 1.5:0.8).

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pablo Carreno-Busta
ATP Challenger
04.09.25	Dusan Lajovic - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:1 ✺
03.09.25	Javier Barranco Cosano - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2 ✺
02.09.25	Daniel Rincon - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
27.08.25	Ben Shelton - Pablo Carreno-Busta	3:0 ✺
24.08.25	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Pablo Llamas Ruiz	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LWWLW
- Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune
ATP US Open
27.08.25	Jan-Lennard Struff - Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune	3:2 ✺
25.08.25	Botic Van De Zandschulp - Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune	0:3 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
14.08.25	Terence Atmane - Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune	2:0 ✺
13.08.25	Francis Tiafoe - Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune	Tiafoe F. retired ✺
11.08.25	Alex Michelsen - Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LWL?W

ATP Montreal
08.08.24	Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:0
10.08.22	Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2
ATP Halle
13.06.22	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune	2:0
ATP Metz
24.09.21	Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune - Pablo Carreno-Busta	1:2

Pablo Carreno-Busta - Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune