Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Alicante, clay - Final

Date: 29 March 2026, Sunday


	Pablo Carreno-Busta		Pablo Llamas Ruiz

	1	2
	1.8	1.91	Watch
	1.75	1.9	Watch
	1.94	1.94
	1.83	1.89	Watch
	1.91	1.8
	1.8	1.88	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↑ (1.78)	1.89 ↓ (1.93)

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pablo Carreno-Busta
50.6%

Pablo Llamas Ruiz
49.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52%

48%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.1%

53.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pablo Carreno-Busta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Pablo Llamas Ruiz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pablo Carreno-Busta than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pablo Llamas Ruiz than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Pablo Carreno Busta - Pablo Llamas Ruiz Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Llamas Ruiz (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Pablo Carreno-Busta will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Carreno Busta is ranked ATP: 117. Llamas Ruiz is ranked ATP: 191.

Carreno Busta is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Llamas Ruiz has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Llamas Ruiz may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

We predict that Carreno Busta will win today's game, with odds of 1.78.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Carreno Busta won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pablo Carreno-Busta
ATP Challenger
28.03.26	Sebastian Ofner - Pablo Carreno-Busta	1:2 ✺
27.03.26	Pedro Martinez Portero - Pablo Carreno-Busta	1:2 ✺
26.03.26	Alejo Sanchez Quilez - Pablo Carreno-Busta	1:2 ✺
24.03.26	Svyatoslav Gulin - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2 ✺
22.03.26	Roberto Carballes Baena - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WWWWW
- Pablo Llamas Ruiz
ATP Challenger
28.03.26	Roman Safiullin - Pablo Llamas Ruiz	0:2 ✺
27.03.26	Pablo Llamas Ruiz - Edas Butvilas	2:0 ✺
24.03.26	Ilya Ivashka - Pablo Llamas Ruiz	0:2 ✺
23.03.26	Elmer Moller - Pablo Llamas Ruiz	Canceled ✺
20.03.26	Jesper De Jong - Pablo Llamas Ruiz	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WWW?L

Latest Head to Head

ATP US Open
24.08.25	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Pablo Llamas Ruiz	3:0

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