Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Cincinnati - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 5 August 2025, Tuesday


	Pablo Carreno-Busta		Leandro Riedi

	1	2
			Watch
	1.37	2.85	Watch
	1.39	3.09
	1.38	2.90	Watch
			Watch
	1.39	2.85	Watch
	1.85	1.87
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↓ (1.9)	2.71 ↑ (1.9)

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pablo Carreno-Busta
64.8%

Leandro Riedi
35.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.9%

45.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pablo Carreno-Busta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Pablo Carreno-Busta's performance.

Leandro Riedi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Leandro Riedi might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pablo Carreno-Busta than the current prediction. (-9.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Pablo Carreno-Busta that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leandro Riedi than the current prediction. (+9.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Leandro Riedi could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	0%	55.6%

Pablo Carreno Busta - Leandro Riedi Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Carreno Busta will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Riedi will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Riedi: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Leandro Riedi will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Carreno Busta is ranked ATP: 93. Riedi is ranked ATP: 487.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Riedi may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pablo Carreno-Busta
ATP Toronto
30.07.25	Arthur Fils - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:0 ✺
28.07.25	Liam Draxl - Pablo Carreno-Busta	1:2 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
30.06.25	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Chris Rodesch	Canceled ✺
ATP Challenger
13.06.25	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Gauthier Onclin	0:2 ✺
11.06.25	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Javier Barranco Cosano	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LW?LW
- Leandro Riedi
ITF Tournaments
30.07.25	Evan Bynoe - Leandro Riedi	Riedi L. retired ✺
ATP Challenger
14.07.25	Andres Martin - Leandro Riedi	2:0 ✺
14.07.25	Kenta Miyoshi - Leandro Riedi	1:2 ✺
09.07.25	Leandro Riedi - Paul Jubb	1:2 ✺
08.07.25	Alfredo Perez - Leandro Riedi	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 ?LWLW

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