Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Barcelona - Qualification, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday


	Pedro Martinez Portero		Pablo Carreno-Busta

	1	2
			Watch
	2.3	1.52	Watch
	2.51	1.56
	2.46	1.52	Watch
	2.38	1.53	Watch
	2.42	1.57	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.41 ↑ (2.32)	1.54 ↓ (1.56)

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pedro Martinez Portero
38.9%

Pablo Carreno-Busta
61.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.2%

59.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.4%

53.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pedro Martinez Portero has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Pablo Carreno-Busta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pedro Martinez Portero than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Pedro Martinez Portero, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pablo Carreno-Busta than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Pablo Carreno-Busta, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	0%	80%

Pedro Martinez Portero - Pablo Carreno Busta Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Martinez Portero will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Carreno Busta will win (votes: 4 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Martinez Portero is ranked ATP: 119. Carreno Busta is ranked ATP: 92.

Martinez Portero has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Carreno Busta is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Carreno Busta may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Carreno Busta is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

We predict that Carreno Busta will win today's game, with odds of 1.56.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Martinez Portero won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Pedro Martinez Portero - the odds 2.32 are the expected chance of winning is 40.19%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pedro Martinez Portero
ATP Monte Carlo
05.04.26	Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Pedro Martinez Portero	2:1 ✺
04.04.26	Pedro Martinez Portero - Aleksandar Vukic	2:0 ✺
ATP Bucharest
31.03.26	Daniel Altmaier - Pedro Martinez Portero	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
27.03.26	Pedro Martinez Portero - Pablo Carreno-Busta	1:2 ✺
26.03.26	Pedro Martinez Portero - Remy Bertola	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LWLLW
- Pablo Carreno-Busta
ATP Challenger
29.03.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Pablo Llamas Ruiz	0:2 ✺
28.03.26	Sebastian Ofner - Pablo Carreno-Busta	1:2 ✺
27.03.26	Pedro Martinez Portero - Pablo Carreno-Busta	1:2 ✺
26.03.26	Alejo Sanchez Quilez - Pablo Carreno-Busta	1:2 ✺
24.03.26	Svyatoslav Gulin - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
27.03.26	Pedro Martinez Portero - Pablo Carreno-Busta	1:2
02.10.23	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Pedro Martinez Portero	0:2

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