Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Murcia, clay - Final

Date: 22 March 2026, Sunday


	Roberto Carballes Baena		Pablo Carreno-Busta

	1	2
	2.75	1.4	Watch
	2.45	1.48	Watch
	2.45	1.47	Watch
	3.13	1.41
	2.6	1.44	Watch
	2.75	1.4	Watch
	2.73	1.4	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.69 ↑ (2.43)	1.43 ↓ (1.48)

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Roberto Carballes Baena
34.7%

Pablo Carreno-Busta
65.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.9%

62.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.3%

60.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Roberto Carballes Baena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Pablo Carreno-Busta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Roberto Carballes Baena than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pablo Carreno-Busta than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Roberto Carballes Baena - Pablo Carreno Busta Predictions

Users Predictions: Pablo Carreno-Busta will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Carballes Baena is ranked ATP: 165. Carreno Busta is ranked ATP: 117.

Now, both players are in good form.

Carballes Baena may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Carreno Busta might have a minor edge in this game.

We predict that Carreno Busta will win today's game, with odds of 1.47.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Carballes Baena won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Roberto Carballes Baena
ATP Challenger
21.03.26	Jesper De Jong - Roberto Carballes Baena	1:2 ✺
20.03.26	Sebastian Ofner - Roberto Carballes Baena	1:2 ✺
18.03.26	Mikhail Kukushkin - Roberto Carballes Baena	1:2 ✺
17.03.26	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo - Roberto Carballes Baena	0:2 ✺
10.03.26	Roberto Carballes Baena - Eero Vasa	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WWWWL
- Pablo Carreno-Busta
ATP Challenger
21.03.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Kimmer Coppejans	2:0 ✺
20.03.26	Andrea Pellegrino - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2 ✺
19.03.26	Felix Gill - Pablo Carreno-Busta	1:2 ✺
17.03.26	Carlos Sanchez Jover - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2 ✺
ATP Dubai
25.02.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Jiri Lehecka	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Rotterdam
07.02.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Roberto Carballes Baena	1:2
ATP Mallorca
23.06.24	Roberto Carballes Baena - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:1
Exhibition Liga MAPFRE de Tenis Men
17.07.20	Roberto Carballes Baena - Pablo Carreno-Busta	Canceled
ATP Sao Paulo
26.02.16	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Roberto Carballes Baena	2:0

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