Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Alicante, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 28 March 2026, Saturday


	Sebastian Ofner		Pablo Carreno-Busta

	1	2
	1.5	2.5	Watch
	1.47	2.4	Watch
	1.57	2.56
	1.59	2.23	Watch
	1.5	2.5	Watch
	1.56	2.27	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (1.56)	2.41 ↑ (2.24)

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sebastian Ofner
61.1%

Pablo Carreno-Busta
38.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.9%

41.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.9%

39.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sebastian Ofner has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Pablo Carreno-Busta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sebastian Ofner than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pablo Carreno-Busta than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.8%	0%	72.2%

Sebastian Ofner - Pablo Carreno Busta Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Ofner will win (votes: 5 - 27.8%). Carreno Busta will win (votes: 13 - 72.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Carreno Busta: 51.5% – 92.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Ofner (votes: 2 - 50%). Carreno Busta (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Ofner is ranked ATP: 86. Carreno Busta is ranked ATP: 117.

Ofner is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Carreno Busta is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Ofner may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sebastian Ofner
ATP Challenger
27.03.26	Sebastian Ofner - Marco Cecchinato	2:0 ✺
25.03.26	Sebastian Ofner - Alejandro Moro Canas	2:0 ✺
23.03.26	Sebastian Ofner - Timofey Skatov	2:0 ✺
20.03.26	Sebastian Ofner - Roberto Carballes Baena	1:2 ✺
18.03.26	Sebastian Ofner - Raul Brancaccio	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WWWLW
- Pablo Carreno-Busta
ATP Challenger
27.03.26	Pedro Martinez Portero - Pablo Carreno-Busta	1:2 ✺
26.03.26	Alejo Sanchez Quilez - Pablo Carreno-Busta	1:2 ✺
24.03.26	Svyatoslav Gulin - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2 ✺
22.03.26	Roberto Carballes Baena - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2 ✺
21.03.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Kimmer Coppejans	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWWWW

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