Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Umag, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 24 July 2025, Thursday


	Pablo Llamas Ruiz		Camilo Ugo Carabelli

	1	2
	1.8	2	Watch
	1.78	2	Watch
	1.78	2.01	Watch
	1.88	2.02
	1.83	1.98	Watch
	1.8	2	Watch
	1.79	2.02	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↓ (2)	2 ↑ (1.8)

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pablo Llamas Ruiz
52.6%

Camilo Ugo Carabelli
47.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.4%

52.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.5%

55.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pablo Llamas Ruiz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Pablo Llamas Ruiz's performance.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Camilo Ugo Carabelli might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pablo Llamas Ruiz than the current prediction. (-8.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Pablo Llamas Ruiz that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Camilo Ugo Carabelli than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Camilo Ugo Carabelli could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	0%	60%

Pablo Llamas Ruiz - Camilo Ugo Carabelli Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Llamas Ruiz will win (votes: 6 - 40%). Ugo Carabelli will win (votes: 9 - 60%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ugo Carabelli: 35.2% – 84.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Llamas Ruiz (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Ugo Carabelli (votes: 5 - 71.4%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +2.5 Games - Ugo Carabelli (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Llamas Ruiz (votes: 2 - 25%). Ugo Carabelli (votes: 6 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Llamas Ruiz is ranked ATP: 537. Ugo Carabelli is ranked ATP: 51.

At the moment, both players are looking strong and ready to play.

Ugo Carabelli may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Llamas Ruiz won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Camilo Ugo Carabelli - the odds 1.8 are the expected chance of winning is 52.63%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pablo Llamas Ruiz
ATP Umag
22.07.25	Pablo Llamas Ruiz - Terence Atmane	2:0 ✺
21.07.25	Kamil Majchrzak - Pablo Llamas Ruiz	0:2 ✺
20.07.25	Andrea Pellegrino - Pablo Llamas Ruiz	0:2 ✺
19.07.25	Pablo Llamas Ruiz - Kyrian Jacquet	2:1 ✺
ATP Bastad
14.07.25	Nicolai Budkov Kjaer - Pablo Llamas Ruiz	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 WWWWL
- Camilo Ugo Carabelli
ATP Umag
22.07.25	Francesco Passaro - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	1:2 ✺
ATP Bastad
19.07.25	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Jesper De Jong	0:2 ✺
18.07.25	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Filip Misolic	2:0 ✺
17.07.25	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Botic Van De Zandschulp	2:1 ✺
16.07.25	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Christian Garin	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
06.09.21	Pablo Llamas Ruiz - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	Ugo Carabelli C. retired

Pablo Llamas Ruiz - Camilo Ugo Carabelli: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide