Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Wuning, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 10 April 2026, Friday


	Pavel Kotov		Ilia Simakin

	1	2
	1.52	2.66
	1.49	2.42	Watch
	1.5	2.5
	1.49	2.45	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↓ (1.84)	2.51 ↑ (1.84)

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Pavel Kotov
62.6%

Ilia Simakin
37.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.8%

56.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pavel Kotov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Pavel Kotov's performance.

Ilia Simakin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ilia Simakin might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pavel Kotov than the current prediction. (-18.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Pavel Kotov that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ilia Simakin than the current prediction. (+18.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ilia Simakin could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
54.5%	0%	45.5%

Pavel Kotov - Ilia Simakin Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Kotov will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Simakin will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kotov: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Kotov (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Preview

Kotov is ranked ATP: 299. Simakin is ranked ATP: 221.

Kotov is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Simakin is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Kotov may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Kotov is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

We predict that Kotov will win today's game, with odds of 1.47.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Pavel Kotov - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Ilia Simakin - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pavel Kotov
ATP Challenger
08.04.26	Pavel Kotov - August Holmgren	2:0 ✺
06.04.26	Pavel Kotov - Keegan Smith	2:0 ✺
15.03.26	Pavel Kotov - Filippo Romano	2:0 ✺
14.03.26	Borna Gojo - Pavel Kotov	1:2 ✺
13.03.26	Murphy Cassone - Pavel Kotov	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WWWWW
- Ilia Simakin
ATP Challenger
08.04.26	Daniil Ostapenkov - Ilia Simakin	0:2 ✺
06.04.26	Tom Paris - Ilia Simakin	1:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
02.04.26	Ilia Simakin - Kuan-Yi Lee	1:2 ✺
01.04.26	Ilia Simakin - Filip Peliwo	2:0 ✺
31.03.26	Ilia Simakin - Shaoyun Liu	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WWLWW

Upcoming Matches