Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Guangzhou 2, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 18 September 2026, Friday


	Pavel Kotov		Rio Noguchi

	1	2
	1.4	2.75	Watch
	1.45	2.55
	1.44	2.6	Watch
	1.43	2.61	Watch
	1.43	2.55
	1.45	2.56	Watch
	1.44	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↑ (1.4)	2.6 ↓ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pavel Kotov
64.5%

Rio Noguchi
35.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.9%

34.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.2%

34.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pavel Kotov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Rio Noguchi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pavel Kotov than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rio Noguchi than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Pavel Kotov - Rio Noguchi Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. Kotov will win (votes: 2 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Kotov (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

H/A, 1st Set - Kotov (1.51) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Kotov (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Kotov is ranked ATP: 221., and Noguchi is ranked ATP: 229..

Kotov is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Performances by Noguchi have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Noguchi could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Kotov is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Last Results with these Odds

Pavel Kotov - the odds 1.4 are the expected chance of winning is 65.85%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Rio Noguchi - the odds 2.7 are the expected chance of winning is 34.15%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pavel Kotov
ATP Challenger
16.09.26	Pavel Kotov - Akira Santillan	2:0 ✺
15.09.26	Shintaro Mochizuki - Pavel Kotov	0:2 ✺
12.09.26	Pavel Kotov - Marat Sharipov	0:2 ✺
11.09.26	Pavel Kotov - Alexis Galarneau	2:1 ✺
09.09.26	Pavel Kotov - Jake Delaney	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WWLWW
- Rio Noguchi
ATP Challenger
16.09.26	Colin Sinclair - Rio Noguchi	0:2 ✺
14.09.26	Kaichi Uchida - Rio Noguchi	1:2 ✺
09.09.26	Rio Noguchi - Omar Jasika	0:2 ✺
07.09.26	Rio Noguchi - Rigele Te	2:0 ✺
ATP US Open
25.08.26	Bu Yunchaokete - Rio Noguchi	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 WWLWL

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