Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Jinan, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 11 October 2025, Saturday


	Petr Bar-Biryukov		Mackenzie McDonald

	1	2
	3.4	1.3	Watch
			Watch
	3.5	1.26
	4.26	1.25
	3.45	1.27	Watch
	3.73	1.25	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.67 ↑ (3.08)	1.27 ↓ (1.36)

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Petr Bar-Biryukov
25.7%

Mackenzie McDonald
74.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.6%

69.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.9%

69.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Petr Bar-Biryukov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Mackenzie McDonald has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Petr Bar-Biryukov than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Petr Bar-Biryukov, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mackenzie McDonald than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Mackenzie McDonald, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.6%	0%	15.4%

Petr Bar Biryukov - Mackenzie McDonald Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Bar-Biryukov will win (votes: 11 - 84.6%). McDonald will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bar-Biryukov: 65% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Petr Bar-Biryukov will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Bar-Biryukov is ranked ATP: 304. McDonald is ranked ATP: 99.

Bar-Biryukov is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In recent matches, McDonald has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

McDonald may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, McDonald is the team to beat.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Petr Bar-Biryukov
ATP Challenger
10.10.25	Colton Smith - Petr Bar-Biryukov	0:2 ✺
09.10.25	Petr Bar-Biryukov - Chak Lam Coleman Wong	2:1 ✺
07.10.25	Petr Bar-Biryukov - Taro Daniel	2:1 ✺
07.10.25	Linang Xiao - Petr Bar-Biryukov	0:2 ✺
06.10.25	Evan Zhu - Petr Bar-Biryukov	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.7 WWWWW
- Mackenzie McDonald
ATP Challenger
10.10.25	Mackenzie McDonald - Brandon Holt	2:1 ✺
09.10.25	Mackenzie McDonald - Pavel Kotov	2:0 ✺
07.10.25	Mackenzie McDonald - Harold Mayot	2:0 ✺
ATP Shanghai
02.10.25	Mackenzie McDonald - Quentin Halys	0:2 ✺
30.09.25	Mackenzie McDonald - Rei Sakamoto	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WWWLL

Petr Bar-Biryukov - Mackenzie McDonald: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide