Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Cancun 2, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 14 August 2025, Thursday

Where to Watch on TV:


Slovakia	Arena sport 2


	Rio Noguchi		Stanislas Wawrinka

	1	2
	2.63	1.44	Watch
	2.5	1.45	Watch
	2.33	1.61
	2.61	1.46	Watch
			Watch
			Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.52 ↓ (3.2)	1.49 ↑ (1.32)

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rio Noguchi
37.2%

Stanislas Wawrinka
62.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.1%

70.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.6%

73.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rio Noguchi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Rio Noguchi's performance.

Stanislas Wawrinka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Stanislas Wawrinka might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rio Noguchi than the current prediction. (-10.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Rio Noguchi that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stanislas Wawrinka than the current prediction. (+10.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Stanislas Wawrinka could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Rio Noguchi - Stanislas Wawrinka Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Noguchi is ranked ATP: 210. Wawrinka is ranked ATP: 152.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Wawrinka may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Wawrinka is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rio Noguchi
ATP Challenger
14.08.25	Liam Draxl - Rio Noguchi	Canceled ✺
12.08.25	Rio Noguchi - James Watt	2:0 ✺
11.08.25	Rio Noguchi - Ray Ho	2:1 ✺
23.07.25	Alexis Galarneau - Rio Noguchi	2:0 ✺
22.07.25	Rio Noguchi - Shintaro Mochizuki	Mochizuki S. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 ?WWL?
- Stanislas Wawrinka
ATP Challenger
14.08.25	Stanislas Wawrinka - Cleeve Harper	2:0 ✺
ATP Umag
23.07.25	Damir Dzumhur - Stanislas Wawrinka	2:0 ✺
21.07.25	Alvaro Guillen Meza - Stanislas Wawrinka	0:2 ✺
ATP Gstaad
15.07.25	Alexander Shevchenko - Stanislas Wawrinka	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
12.07.25	Elmer Moller - Stanislas Wawrinka	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 WLWLL

Rio Noguchi - Stanislas Wawrinka: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide