Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: US Open, hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 26 August 2025, Tuesday

Location: USTA Billie Jean King NTC (New York, NY)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belgium	HBO Max, HBO Max
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	HBO Max
Bulgaria	HBO Max
Croatia	HBO Max
Czech-republic	HBO Max
Denmark	HBO Max
Finland	HBO Max
France	HBO Max
Hungary	HBO Max
Moldova	HBO Max
Montenegro	HBO Max
Netherlands	HBO Max
North-macedonia	HBO Max
Norway	HBO Max
Poland	HBO Max
Romania	HBO Max
Serbia	HBO Max
Slovenia	HBO Max
Spain	HBO Max
Sweden	HBO Max


	Roberto Bautista-Agut		Jacob Fearnley

	1	2
	1.67	2.2	Watch
	1.65	2.18
	1.66	2.17	Watch
	1.71	2.24
	1.86	1.95	Watch
	1.67	2.2
	1.7	2.28	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↑ (1.67)	2.17 ↓ (2.2)

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Roberto Bautista-Agut
56.1%

Jacob Fearnley
43.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.8%

43.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.8%

40.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Roberto Bautista-Agut has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Jacob Fearnley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Roberto Bautista-Agut than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jacob Fearnley than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	0%	44.4%

Roberto Bautista Agut - Jacob Fearnley Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Bautista-Agut will win (votes: 10 - 55.6%). Fearnley will win (votes: 8 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bautista-Agut: 32.6% – 78.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Bautista-Agut (votes: 4 - 40%). Fearnley (votes: 6 - 60%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2.5 Sets - Bautista-Agut (3.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Bautista-Agut (votes: 5 - 45.5%). Fearnley (votes: 6 - 54.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Preview

Bautista-Agut is ranked ATP: 47. Fearnley is ranked ATP: 59.

Bautista-Agut has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Fearnley's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Fearnley may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Roberto Bautista-Agut
ATP Winston-Salem
20.08.25	Roberto Bautista-Agut - Marton Fucsovics	0:2 ✺
19.08.25	Roberto Bautista-Agut - Christopher OConnell	O'Connell C. retired ✺
ATP Cincinnati
13.08.25	Ben Shelton - Roberto Bautista-Agut	2:0 ✺
10.08.25	Roberto Bautista-Agut - Cameron Norrie	2:0 ✺
08.08.25	Daniel Altmaier - Roberto Bautista-Agut	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 L?LWW
- Jacob Fearnley
ATP Winston-Salem
19.08.25	Hamad Medjedovic - Jacob Fearnley	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
13.08.25	James McCabe - Jacob Fearnley	Fearnley J. retired ✺
12.08.25	Jacob Fearnley - Quinn Vandecasteele	2:0 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
07.08.25	Zizou Bergs - Jacob Fearnley	2:0 ✺
ATP Toronto
27.07.25	Jacob Fearnley - Juan Pablo Ficovich	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 L?WLL

Roberto Bautista-Agut - Jacob Fearnley: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide