Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Beijing (China) - Qualification, hard - Final

Date: 24 September 2024, Tuesday


	Roberto Carballes Baena		Pavel Kotov

	1	2
			Watch
	2.1	1.67
	2.01	1.72	Watch
	2.17	1.71
	2.25	1.68	Watch
	2	1.73	Watch
	2.06	1.7	Watch
	2.01	1.72
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.09 ↓ (2.36)	1.7 ↑ (1.54)

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Roberto Carballes Baena
45%

Pavel Kotov
55%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.5%

60.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.9%

59.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Roberto Carballes Baena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Roberto Carballes Baena's performance.

Pavel Kotov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Pavel Kotov might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Roberto Carballes Baena than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pavel Kotov than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Roberto Carballes Baena - Pavel Kotov Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Carballes Baena will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). Kotov will win (votes: 8 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kotov: 40% – 93.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Carballes Baena is ranked ATP: 53. Kotov is ranked ATP: 63.

Carballes Baena is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Kotov is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Carballes Baena could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both players.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Carballes Baena won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Roberto Carballes Baena
ATP Beijing
24.09.24	Roberto Carballes Baena - Rigele Te	2:0 ✺
ATP Hangzhou
22.09.24	Zhizhen Zhang - Roberto Carballes Baena	2:0 ✺
21.09.24	Roberto Carballes Baena - Mitchell Krueger	2:1 ✺
19.09.24	Corentin Moutet - Roberto Carballes Baena	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
07.09.24	Roberto Carballes Baena - Daniel Altmaier	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WLWWW
- Pavel Kotov
ATP Beijing
23.09.24	Sumit Nagal - Pavel Kotov	0:2 ✺
ATP Chengdu
19.09.24	Pavel Kotov - Christopher OConnell	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
27.08.24	Zizou Bergs - Pavel Kotov	3:2 ✺
ATP Winston-Salem
22.08.24	Pavel Kotov - Lorenzo Sonego	0:2 ✺
21.08.24	Zachary Svajda - Pavel Kotov	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Marrakech
06.04.24	Pavel Kotov - Roberto Carballes Baena	0:2
ATP Challenger
14.04.22	Roberto Carballes Baena - Pavel Kotov	2:1

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