Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Houston, clay - Final

Date: 5 April 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports 1
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Premier Sport 2
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4
Sweden	TV4 Tennis
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Tennis


	Roman Andres Burruchaga		Tommy Paul

	1	2
	2.75	1.44	Watch
			Watch
	2.75	1.44	Watch
	2.98	1.45
	2.73	1.46	Watch
	2.75	1.44	Watch
	2.81	1.46	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.8 ↓ (2.81)	1.45 ↑ (1.4)

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Roman Andres Burruchaga
34.1%

Tommy Paul
65.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.3%

66.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30%

70%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Roman Andres Burruchaga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Tommy Paul has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Roman Andres Burruchaga than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tommy Paul than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	0%	60%

Roman Andres Burruchaga - Tommy Paul Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Burruchaga will win (votes: 4 - 40%). Paul will win (votes: 6 - 60%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Paul: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Burruchaga is ranked ATP: 77. Paul is ranked ATP: 21.

Currently, both players are in excellent shape.

Burruchaga may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Paul is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Paul will win today's game, with odds of 1.4.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Tommy Paul - the odds 1.4 are the expected chance of winning is 66.75%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Roman Andres Burruchaga
ATP Houston
04.04.26	Thiago Augustin Tirante - Roman Andres Burruchaga	2:0 ✺
03.04.26	Learner Tien - Roman Andres Burruchaga	0:2 ✺
02.04.26	Roman Andres Burruchaga - Brandon Nakashima	2:1 ✺
01.04.26	Roman Andres Burruchaga - Adam Walton	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
29.03.26	Jaime Faria - Roman Andres Burruchaga	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 LWWWW
- Tommy Paul
ATP Houston
04.04.26	Tommy Paul - Francis Tiafoe	Canceled ✺
03.04.26	Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Tommy Paul	0:2 ✺
01.04.26	Daniel Vallejo - Tommy Paul	1:2 ✺
ATP Miami
25.03.26	Tommy Paul - Arthur Fils	1:2 ✺
24.03.26	Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Tommy Paul	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 ?WWLW

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