Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Miami, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 25 March 2026, Wednesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports 1
Brazil	ESPN 2
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Croatia	SportKlub 2
Czech-republic	Oneplay
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 6
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4, Ziggo Sport
Romania	Digi Sport 2, Prima Sport PPV 1
Slovenia	SportKlub 2
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Tennis
Ukraine	Setanta Sports Premium
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports Tennis


	Tommy Paul		Arthur Fils

	1	2
	2.1	1.73	Watch
			Watch
	2.1	1.74	Watch
	2.21	1.75
	2.17	1.69	Watch
	2.2	1.67	Watch
	2.16	1.76	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↑ (2.07)	1.72 ↓ (1.74)

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tommy Paul
44.4%

Arthur Fils
55.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.7%

54.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.6%

56.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tommy Paul has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Arthur Fils has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tommy Paul than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arthur Fils than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
26.1%	0%	73.9%

Tommy Paul - Arthur Fils Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Paul will win (votes: 6 - 26.1%). Fils will win (votes: 17 - 73.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fils: 56% – 91.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Arthur Fils will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Paul is ranked ATP: 23. Fils is ranked ATP: 31.

Currently, both players are in excellent shape.

Paul may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

We predict that Fils will win today's game, with odds of 1.76.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Paul won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tommy Paul
ATP Miami
24.03.26	Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Tommy Paul	0:2 ✺
22.03.26	Tommy Paul - Raphael Collignon	2:1 ✺
20.03.26	Tommy Paul - Adrian Mannarino	2:1 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
08.03.26	Joao Fonseca - Tommy Paul	2:0 ✺
06.03.26	Zizou Bergs - Tommy Paul	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWWLW
- Arthur Fils
ATP Miami
24.03.26	Valentin Vacherot - Arthur Fils	1:2 ✺
22.03.26	Arthur Fils - Stefanos Tsitsipas	2:0 ✺
20.03.26	Arthur Fils - Darwin Blanch	2:0 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
12.03.26	Arthur Fils - Alexander Zverev	0:2 ✺
10.03.26	Arthur Fils - Felix Aliassime-Auger	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Shanghai
09.10.23	Tommy Paul - Arthur Fils	2:1

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