Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Houston, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 4 April 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports 1
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Premier Sport 2
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4
Poland	Polsat Sport 3
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Tennis
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Tennis


	Tommy Paul		Francis Tiafoe

	1	2
	1.44	2.75	Watch
			Watch
	1.45	2.7	Watch
	1.46	2.96
	1.4	2.84	Watch
	1.44	2.75	Watch
	1.45	2.85	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↓ (1.56)	2.81 ↑ (2.37)

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tommy Paul
66.1%

Francis Tiafoe
33.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.2%

39.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.3%

42.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tommy Paul has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tommy Paul's performance.

Francis Tiafoe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Francis Tiafoe might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tommy Paul than the current prediction. (-8.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tommy Paul that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Francis Tiafoe than the current prediction. (+8.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Francis Tiafoe could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.9%	0%	9.1%

Tommy Paul - Francis Tiafoe Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Paul (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Tommy Paul will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Paul Tommy, Tiafoe Frances - withdrawn.

Paul is ranked ATP: 21. Tiafoe is ranked ATP: 18.

Now, both players are in good form.

Paul could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Paul won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:5. (average 1.2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tommy Paul
ATP Houston
03.04.26	Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Tommy Paul	0:2 ✺
01.04.26	Daniel Vallejo - Tommy Paul	1:2 ✺
ATP Miami
25.03.26	Tommy Paul - Arthur Fils	1:2 ✺
24.03.26	Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Tommy Paul	0:2 ✺
22.03.26	Tommy Paul - Raphael Collignon	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWLWW
- Francis Tiafoe
ATP Houston
03.04.26	Alexei Popyrin - Francis Tiafoe	1:2 ✺
02.04.26	Rinky Hijikata - Francis Tiafoe	1:2 ✺
ATP Miami
26.03.26	Francis Tiafoe - Jannik Sinner	0:2 ✺
24.03.26	Terence Atmane - Francis Tiafoe	1:2 ✺
23.03.26	Francis Tiafoe - Jakub Mensik	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Delray Beach
17.02.24	Tommy Paul - Francis Tiafoe	2:0
ATP Adelaide 2
09.01.22	Francis Tiafoe - Tommy Paul	0:2
ATP Stockholm
12.11.21	Tommy Paul - Francis Tiafoe	2:1
ATP Delray Beach
20.02.20	Tommy Paul - Francis Tiafoe	0:2
ATP Challenger
25.07.16	Tommy Paul - Francis Tiafoe	0:2

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