Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Geneva (Switzerland), clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 23 May 2024, Thursday

Referee: Asderaki-Moore E. (Gre)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 3
Finland	MTV Katsomo
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis, Sky Sport Top event
Portugal	Sport TV6
Romania	Prima Sport 2


	Sebastian Baez		Casper Ruud

	1	2
	3.4	1.33	Watch
	3.4	1.3
	3.4	1.3	Watch
	3.6	1.33
	3.63	1.33
	3.5	1.3	Watch
	3.19	1.36	Watch
	3.4	1.34
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.44 ↑ (2.81)	1.32 ↓ (1.45)

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sebastian Baez
27.8%

Casper Ruud
72.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34%

66%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.8%

68.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sebastian Baez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sebastian Baez's form might have worsened.

Casper Ruud has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Casper Ruud's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sebastian Baez than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Casper Ruud than the current prediction. (-4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	0%	80%

Sebastian Baez - Casper Ruud Predictions

Users Predictions: Casper Ruud will win (12 of 15 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.76% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Baez is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Ruud is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Baez could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Ruud is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Baez won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sebastian Baez
ATP Geneva
22.05.24	Sebastian Baez - Roberto Carballes Baena	2:0 ✺
19.05.24	Sebastian Baez - Sumit Nagal	2:0 ✺
ATP Roma
14.05.24	Hubert Hurkacz - Sebastian Baez	2:1 ✺
13.05.24	Sebastian Baez - Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune	2:1 ✺
11.05.24	Sebastian Baez - Dusan Lajovic	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WWLWW
- Casper Ruud
ATP Geneva
22.05.24	Sebastian Ofner - Casper Ruud	1:2 ✺
ATP Roma
10.05.24	Miomir Kecmanovic - Casper Ruud	2:1 ✺
ATP Madrid
30.04.24	Felix Aliassime-Auger - Casper Ruud	2:0 ✺
29.04.24	Cameron Norrie - Casper Ruud	0:2 ✺
27.04.24	Miomir Kecmanovic - Casper Ruud	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Hamburg
26.07.23	Casper Ruud - Sebastian Baez	2:1
ATP Estoril
07.04.23	Casper Ruud - Sebastian Baez	2:0

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